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💸 Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March－new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More
☢️ Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬 Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More
⚔️ Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸 No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More
🎉 Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀 CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More
🦠 Omicron variant fears. New #COVID19 variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%. #COVIDRecovery names hit hard, but #RevengeTravel including hotels and airlines decimated. 🏦 Powell renominated. Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More
📈 Surging inflation. #InflationFears in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%－3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. 📉 Consumer sentiment falling. #InflationFears spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More
🦥 Cautious Fed. As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials 🏦 lower with it. ✈️ Travel time. #RevengeTravel got a shot in the arm with more positive #COVID19 pill data. Compounds strong #earnings as travel restrictions ease globally. All 👀 on Read More
📉 September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%－first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸 Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More
🇨🇳 China financial crisis. Chinese property giant Evergrande remains on brink of bankrupcy. TLDR timeline: Markets 📉 Mon → 📈 Tues on payment assurances → 📈 rest of week despite indications obligations not met on Thu. Dubbed Lehman 2.0, we’re monitoring closely as China looks to stabilize situation. 🏦 Fed turning hawkish. Fed signaled purchase tapering soon though vague on timing. Accelerating rate Read More
📉 Markets sink on Fed tapering. Markets dropped in power hour Wed as Fed commentary indicated purchase tapering by end of year. Investors mostly shook off macro uncertainty in Afghanistan and ever increasing #COVID19, but Fed minutes tipped the scales. 🌊. 4th wave rising. #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations approaching 3rd wave levels. (Deaths still lower, but also lagging indicator.) #COVIDRecovery trajectory Read More