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Market Musings 5/9/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We focus on fundamentally strong investments with long-term time horizons to weather market down cycles Coming into 2022, market sentiment was already increasingly bearish with aggressive #RisingYields expected to combat surging #InflationFears. #UkraineCrisis Read More
😬 Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉 Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More
💸 Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March－new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More
☢️ Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬 Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More
⚔️ Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸 No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More
🎉 Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀 CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More
🦠 Omicron variant fears. New #COVID19 variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%. #COVIDRecovery names hit hard, but #RevengeTravel including hotels and airlines decimated. 🏦 Powell renominated. Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More
📈 Surging inflation. #InflationFears in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%－3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. 📉 Consumer sentiment falling. #InflationFears spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More
🦥 Cautious Fed. As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials 🏦 lower with it. ✈️ Travel time. #RevengeTravel got a shot in the arm with more positive #COVID19 pill data. Compounds strong #earnings as travel restrictions ease globally. All 👀 on Read More