Keep Calm & Stay Invested šŸ‘‘

Market Musings 5/9/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We focus on fundamentally strong investments with long-term time horizons to weather market down cycles Coming into 2022, market sentiment was already increasingly bearish with aggressive #RisingYields expected to combat surging #InflationFears. #UkraineCrisis Read More

Back in Correction Territory šŸ“‰

šŸ˜¬Ā  Recession worries.Ā Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway beingĀ #COVID19Ā winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way toĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ like travel.Ā #UkraineCrisisĀ pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. šŸ“‰Ā  Correction territory (again).Ā Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More

Travel Takeoff šŸ›«

šŸ’øĀ  Inflation keeps climbing.Ā 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in Marchļ¼new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs ofĀ #InflationFearsĀ peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressiveĀ #RisingYieldsĀ plan. āœˆļø Travel returns.Ā Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well forĀ #RevengeTravelĀ kicking off this summer. Read More

Ukraine Resistance šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦

ā˜¢ļøĀ  Nuclear threat.Ā More escalation inĀ #UkraineCrisisĀ as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. šŸ›¬Ā  Travel grounded.Ā #UkraineCrisisĀ escalation has take the wind out ofĀ #RevengeTravelĀ sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More

Ukraine Crisis šŸ˜Ø

āš”ļøĀ  Ukraine escalating.Ā Putin escalatingĀ #UkraineCrisisĀ declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. šŸ’øĀ  No Fed surprises.Ā Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More

Trouble in Ukraine ā±

šŸŽ‰Ā  Recovery party…Ā With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get theĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ party started. Strong earnings results fromĀ #RevengeTravelĀ names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. šŸš€Ā  CPI still soaring.Ā January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. WithĀ #InflationFearsĀ still hot, investors worry new data Read More

A Different Black Friday šŸ¦ 

šŸ¦ Ā  Omicron variant fears.Ā NewĀ #COVID19Ā variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%.Ā #COVIDRecoveryĀ names hit hard, butĀ #RevengeTravelĀ including hotels and airlines decimated. šŸ¦Ā  Powell renominated.Ā Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Oct CPI Lifts Off šŸš€

šŸ“ˆĀ  Surging inflation.Ā #InflationFearsĀ in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%ļ¼3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. šŸ“‰Ā  Consumer sentiment falling.Ā #InflationFearsĀ spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action šŸ¦„

šŸ¦„Ā  Cautious Fed.Ā As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transientĀ #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with FinancialsĀ šŸ¦Ā lower with it. āœˆļøĀ  Travel time.Ā #RevengeTravelĀ got a shot in the arm with more positiveĀ #COVID19Ā pill data. Compounds strongĀ #earningsĀ as travel restrictions ease globally. AllĀ šŸ‘€ on Read More