A Different Black Friday 🦠

🦠  Omicron variant fears. New #COVID19 variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%. #COVIDRecovery names hit hard, but #RevengeTravel including hotels and airlines decimated. 🏦  Powell renominated. Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Oct CPI Lifts Off 🚀

📈  Surging inflation. #InflationFears in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%-3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. 📉  Consumer sentiment falling. #InflationFears spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action 🦥

🦥  Cautious Fed. As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials 🏦 lower with it. ✈️  Travel time. #RevengeTravel got a shot in the arm with more positive #COVID19 pill data. Compounds strong #earnings as travel restrictions ease globally. All 👀 on Read More

Blue or Red Pill? 😎 Green Pill! 📈

📉  September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%-first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸  Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Lehman 2.0: China Financial Crisis? 😬

🇨🇳 China financial crisis. Chinese property giant Evergrande remains on brink of bankrupcy. TLDR timeline: Markets 📉 Mon → 📈 Tues on payment assurances → 📈 rest of week despite indications obligations not met on Thu. Dubbed Lehman 2.0, we’re monitoring closely as China looks to stabilize situation. 🏦  Fed turning hawkish. Fed signaled purchase tapering soon though vague on timing. Accelerating rate Read More

Cyclical Pullback on Uncertainty

📉 Markets sink on Fed tapering. Markets dropped in power hour Wed as Fed commentary indicated purchase tapering by end of year. Investors mostly shook off macro uncertainty in Afghanistan and ever increasing #COVID19, but Fed minutes tipped the scales. 🌊. 4th wave rising. #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations approaching 3rd wave levels. (Deaths still lower, but also lagging indicator.) #COVIDRecovery trajectory Read More

Travel Recovery? ✈️

💰Yields rebounding. #RisingYields rebound up +4% rising as more strong economic data may accelerate Fed rate decision. Financials jumped +4% with overall S&P 500 up +1% for week. ✈️ Travel strong? Strong travel bookings boosting #RevengeTravel. However, boost primarily driven by domestic as international, corporate and big city travel still muted. 🇨🇳 ‘Spiritual Opium’. More #ChinaTension as state run publication calls online Read More

Earnings Winners 😃 & Losers 😖

💪 Domestic pandemic recovery strong. As cases continue to rise globally, 🇺🇸 #COVIDRecovery momentum strong. #Earnings winners saw reopenings and increased spending drive beats. Even #RevengeTravel got a boost with Europe likely opening to vaccinated Americans in summer. 🤢 International pandemic recovery not so much. #COVID19 continues to surge internationally with new all-time case highs. Companies with large international exposure were #earnings losers often Read More

Correcting the Correction

While markets surged today, high growth stocks had been under siege for the past several weeks. Before today, tech heavy NASDAQ fell over -10% from its peak on Feb 12 while the more diverse S&P 500 fell less than -3%. Today, NASDAQ’s Herculean rebound recouped part of the loss, but still remains down -7% from Read More