A Different Black Friday 🦠

🦠  Omicron variant fears. New #COVID19 variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%. #COVIDRecovery names hit hard, but #RevengeTravel including hotels and airlines decimated. 🏦  Powell renominated. Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Strong Retail Demand 🛍

🛍  Strong retail spending. Retail #earnings were strong highlighting #COVIDRecovery consumer demand remains intact despite #InflationFears. However, #SupplyScare issues remain heading into Q4. Consumer up +4% for week. 🦠  4th Wave? #COVID19 resurgence in Europe as rising case has Austria mandating 20-day lockdown and Germany not ruling out potential lockdown either. Even  cases troughed weeks ago and rising again. Volatile market as #COVIDRecovery keeps starting and stopping. ️💸  Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas 🎄

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More

Supply Scare 👻

🚢  Supply shortages. #SupplyScare has companies scrambling to build and ship products. Component shortages, labor shortages, rising fuel costs and delayed logistics all compounding the issue. Not boding well for Q4 🎄 season. ⚾️  Revenue strikes out. Revenue missing Street expectations is a recurring theme this #earnings season. #COVIDRecovery demand seems to be there, but companies can’t produce enough product due to #SupplyScare issues. 💸  Yields Read More

Pantry Loading 2.0? 🧻

🚢  Supply chain woes. Rising concerns #COVIDRecovery hampered by persistent supply chain issues. Consumer companies noting some consumer hoarding behavior (Pantry Loading 2.0?) as well as retail ad demand lower for holiday season. All-time high energy prices just compounding investor concerns. 💸  Yields resume climb. Erasing last week’s dip, #RisingYields resume with 10-year treasury yield up 4%. More #InflationFears bolstered by Powell’s ‘time Read More

Banking on COVID Recovery 🤑

💸  Yields stabilizing. #RisingYields breaks 3-week streak with 10-year treasury yield ending week down -2%. Yields peaked Mon, dropped -6% by Thur and rebounded +4% Fri. The culprit flattening yield curves as investors worry Fed underestimating #InflationFears and will need to accelerate rate hikes. 💻  Growth rebound. S&P 500 finished up almost +2% with high-growth Tech leading the way up Read More

New Adventures of Old Auto 🚘

💸  Yields keep on rising. For 3rd straight week, #RisingYields continue tacking on another 9%. Surging energy prices, strong #COVIDRecovery data and incoming Fed action continues to drive #InflationFears and #Flight2Safety rotation. 🇨🇳  Biden/Xi virtual summit. White House reengaging Beijing holding a virtual summit later this year. Markets popped Thursday on #ChinaTension relief with S&P 500 finishing +1% for week. 🚙  Legacy auto in spotlight. General Motors Read More

Market-Deflating Inflation

Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More

Blue or Red Pill? 😎 Green Pill! 📈

📉  September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%-first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸  Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Inflation Peaking? 😅

💸  Peaking inflation? #InflationFears moderating as August 12-month CPI rose only +0.3% M/M (still up 5.3% Y/Y). 2nd month of deceleration, but we’re still monitoring 2 main questions: (1) Does inflation recede? and (2) Could this be just a temporary reprieve due to #COVID19 delta? 🇨🇳  China concerns. #ChinaTension weighing on markets again as its #COVIDRecovery stalling from new delta outbreaks and more Read More