A Different Black Friday šŸ¦ 

šŸ¦ Ā  Omicron variant fears.Ā NewĀ #COVID19Ā variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%.Ā #COVIDRecoveryĀ names hit hard, butĀ #RevengeTravelĀ including hotels and airlines decimated. šŸ¦Ā  Powell renominated.Ā Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Strong Retail Demand šŸ›

šŸ›Ā  Strong retail spending.Ā RetailĀ #earningsĀ were strong highlightingĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ consumer demand remains intact despiteĀ #InflationFears. However,Ā #SupplyScareĀ issues remain heading into Q4. Consumer up +4% for week. šŸ¦ Ā  4th Wave?Ā #COVID19Ā resurgence in Europe as rising case has Austria mandating 20-day lockdown and Germany not ruling out potential lockdown either. EvenĀ Ā cases troughed weeks ago and rising again. Volatile market asĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ keeps starting and stopping. ļøšŸ’øĀ  Read More

Oct CPI Lifts Off šŸš€

šŸ“ˆĀ  Surging inflation.Ā #InflationFearsĀ in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%ļ¼3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. šŸ“‰Ā  Consumer sentiment falling.Ā #InflationFearsĀ spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action šŸ¦„

šŸ¦„Ā  Cautious Fed.Ā As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transientĀ #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with FinancialsĀ šŸ¦Ā lower with it. āœˆļøĀ  Travel time.Ā #RevengeTravelĀ got a shot in the arm with more positiveĀ #COVID19Ā pill data. Compounds strongĀ #earningsĀ as travel restrictions ease globally. AllĀ šŸ‘€ on Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas šŸŽ„

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More

Supply Scare šŸ‘»

šŸš¢Ā  Supply shortages.Ā #SupplyScareĀ has companies scrambling to build and ship products. Component shortages, labor shortages, rising fuel costs and delayed logistics all compounding the issue. Not boding well for Q4Ā šŸŽ„Ā season. āš¾ļøĀ  Revenue strikes out.Ā Revenue missing Street expectations is a recurring theme thisĀ #earningsĀ season.Ā #COVIDRecoveryĀ demand seems to be there, but companies can’t produce enough product due toĀ #SupplyScareĀ issues. šŸ’øĀ  Yields Read More

Pantry Loading 2.0? šŸ§»

šŸš¢Ā  Supply chain woes.Ā Rising concernsĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ hampered by persistent supply chain issues. Consumer companies noting some consumer hoarding behavior (Pantry Loading 2.0?) as well as retail ad demand lower for holiday season. All-time high energy prices just compounding investor concerns. šŸ’øĀ  Yields resume climb.Ā Erasing last week’s dip,Ā #RisingYieldsĀ resume with 10-year treasury yield up 4%. MoreĀ #InflationFearsĀ bolstered by Powell’s ‘time Read More

Banking on COVID Recovery šŸ¤‘

šŸ’øĀ  Yields stabilizing.Ā #RisingYieldsĀ breaks 3-week streak with 10-year treasury yield ending week down -2%. Yields peaked Mon, dropped -6% by Thur and rebounded +4% Fri. The culprit flattening yield curves as investors worry Fed underestimatingĀ #InflationFearsĀ and will need to accelerate rate hikes. šŸ’»Ā  Growth rebound.Ā S&P 500 finished up almost +2% with high-growth Tech leading the way up Read More