A Different Black Friday ūü¶†

ūü¶†¬† Omicron variant fears.¬†New¬†#COVID19¬†variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%.¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†names hit hard, but¬†#RevengeTravel¬†including hotels and airlines decimated. ūüŹ¶¬† Powell renominated.¬†Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Strong Retail Demand ūüõć

ūüõ欆 Strong retail spending.¬†Retail¬†#earnings¬†were strong highlighting¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†consumer demand remains intact despite¬†#InflationFears. However,¬†#SupplyScare¬†issues remain heading into Q4. Consumer up +4% for week. ūü¶†¬† 4th Wave?¬†#COVID19¬†resurgence in Europe as rising case has Austria mandating 20-day lockdown and Germany not ruling out potential lockdown either. Even¬†¬†cases troughed weeks ago and rising again. Volatile market as¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†keeps starting and stopping. ÔłŹūüíł¬† Read More

Oct CPI Lifts Off ūüöÄ

ūü﹬† Surging inflation.¬†#InflationFears¬†in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%Ôľć3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. ūüďȬ† Consumer sentiment falling.¬†#InflationFears¬†spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action ūü¶•

ūü¶•¬† Cautious Fed.¬†As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient¬†#InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials¬†ūüŹ¶¬†lower with it. ‚úąÔłŹ¬† Travel time.¬†#RevengeTravel¬†got a shot in the arm with more positive¬†#COVID19¬†pill data. Compounds strong¬†#earnings¬†as travel restrictions ease globally. All¬†ūüĎÄ on Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas ūüéĄ

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More

Market-Deflating Inflation

Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More

Blue or Red Pill? ūüėé Green Pill! ūüďą

ūüďȬ† September pullback.¬†S&P 500 finished September down -5%Ôľćfirst red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced¬†#InflationFears,¬†#RisingYields¬†and¬†#ChinaTension. ūüíł¬† Yields keep rising.¬†10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains.¬†#InflationFears¬†in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong¬†#Flight2Safety¬†rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Lehman 2.0: China Financial Crisis? ūüė¨

ūüá®ūüá≥ China financial crisis.¬†Chinese property giant Evergrande remains on brink of bankrupcy. TLDR timeline: Markets¬†ūüďȬ†Mon ‚Üí¬†ūü﹬†Tues on payment assurances ‚Üí¬†ūü﹬†rest of week despite indications obligations not met on Thu. Dubbed Lehman 2.0, we’re monitoring closely as China looks to stabilize situation. ūüŹ¶¬† Fed turning hawkish.¬†Fed signaled purchase tapering soon though vague on timing. Accelerating rate Read More

Inflation Peaking? ūüėÖ

ūüíł¬† Peaking inflation?¬†#InflationFears¬†moderating as August 12-month CPI rose only +0.3% M/M (still up 5.3% Y/Y). 2nd month of deceleration, but we’re still monitoring 2 main questions: (1) Does inflation recede? and (2) Could this be just a temporary reprieve due to¬†#COVID19¬†delta? ūüá®ūüá≥¬† China concerns.¬†#ChinaTension¬†weighing on markets again as its¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†stalling from new delta outbreaks and more Read More

Cracks in App Store Ecosystem ūüďĪ

ūüė∑ Stalling recovery?¬†#COVID19¬†delta surge moderating, but worries over¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†momentum rising. Spending data shows slowing growth and company¬†#Back2Work¬†plans continue to get pushed back. ūüė¨¬† Risk appetite contracting.¬†Market pullback not surprising given huge August gains and post another¬†#Crypto¬†rise and fall. Overall, broad sector weakness as S&P 500 fell almost -2% last week. ūüďĪ¬† App Ecosystem breach.¬†District Court ruled Read More