Soft Landing Optimism 🛬

🏦  Easing Fed? Strong market rebound on improving inflation data and potential Fed reassessment after couple more #RisingYields hikes. Investors looking to call bottom, but we’ll see with macro data also deteriorating. Markets green with S&P 500 rebounding up almost +7% last week. 👻  Oh Snap! Snap negatively revised its outlook from just a month ago blaming rapidly deteriorating Read More

Consumer Crumbles 🛍

🛍  Retail selloff. Retailers’ profitability hit sounded the alarm with negative impact from higher markdowns, freight costs, supply disruptions and labor costs. Perfect storm of #RecessionWatch fears fueled market panic. Consumer sectors badly underperformed very bearish market week down -8%. 💋  Flirting with bear market. Another bearish market week as S&P 500 dipped again into bear territory. While a Read More

Time to Get Greedy 😈

Market Musings 5/18/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! S&P 500 creeping into bear market territory with likely recession near-term. While we’re not calling (nor expecting) a market bottom here, we do believe this is the time to start getting greedy. “Fearful Read More

Back in Correction Territory 📉

😬  Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉  Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More

75 is the new 50 🏦

💸  Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬  Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More

Hawkish Plans 💸

📈  Yields spike. Fed March meeting minutes released signaled very hawkish discussions around raising yields in 0.5% increments and starting balance sheet reduction as soon as May. Fed looks to be VERY aggressive with #RisingYields to combat #InflationFears. 10-year treasury yield spiked +14% to new YTD highs. ✈️  Flight to safety. High-growth technology names led markets lower on #RisingYields and more reports Read More

Semis Made in the USA 🇺🇸

🛡  Biden visits NATO. President Biden traveled to NATO HQ in Belgium for discussions on ongoing #UkraineCrisis. Cautious market optimism with more cooperation, additional sanctions and forceful condemnation of Putin. S&P 500 maintains rally up another +2% last week. 💸  Rising yields chatter. Barely a week out from March meeting and investors already speculating on the next #RisingYields hike. Powell Read More

War in Ukraine ⚔️

⚔️  Ukraine invasion. After weeks of #UkraineCrisis escalation, Russia invaded Ukraine on Wednesday night (US time). US and other NATO nations retaliated by imposing severe sanctions on Russia with little deterrence impact so far. Initially plummeting -3% premarket, S&P 500 rallied ending up +1.5% on Thursday. 🗣  Russia ready to talk? Russia agreed to send a delegation to not-so-neutral Read More