Fed Turns Hawkish 🦅
🦅 Fed shifting to offense. Fed turns hawkish to combat surging #InflationFears. Fed accelerating tapering plan doubling monthly reduction to $30B and targeting 3 rate hikes in 2022 (up from just one expected last month). We think even the accelerated expectations may still be conservative… 😷 Omicron surging globally. While still milder symptoms generally, high transmissibility has #COVID19 Omicron surging Read More
Banking on COVID Recovery 🤑
💸 Yields stabilizing. #RisingYields breaks 3-week streak with 10-year treasury yield ending week down -2%. Yields peaked Mon, dropped -6% by Thur and rebounded +4% Fri. The culprit flattening yield curves as investors worry Fed underestimating #InflationFears and will need to accelerate rate hikes. 💻 Growth rebound. S&P 500 finished up almost +2% with high-growth Tech leading the way up Read More
New Adventures of Old Auto 🚘
💸 Yields keep on rising. For 3rd straight week, #RisingYields continue tacking on another 9%. Surging energy prices, strong #COVIDRecovery data and incoming Fed action continues to drive #InflationFears and #Flight2Safety rotation. 🇨🇳 Biden/Xi virtual summit. White House reengaging Beijing holding a virtual summit later this year. Markets popped Thursday on #ChinaTension relief with S&P 500 finishing +1% for week. 🚙 Legacy auto in spotlight. General Motors Read More
Market-Deflating Inflation
Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More
Blue or Red Pill? 😎 Green Pill! 📈
📉 September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%－first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸 Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More
Cyclical Pullback on Uncertainty
📉 Markets sink on Fed tapering. Markets dropped in power hour Wed as Fed commentary indicated purchase tapering by end of year. Investors mostly shook off macro uncertainty in Afghanistan and ever increasing #COVID19, but Fed minutes tipped the scales. 🌊. 4th wave rising. #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations approaching 3rd wave levels. (Deaths still lower, but also lagging indicator.) #COVIDRecovery trajectory Read More
Inflation soars again 🛫; Investors 🥱
🤷♂️ Inflation hits 5% in May. Beating last month’s 13-year high of 4.2%, 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth came in at 5% for May. Surprisingly, investors mostly shrugged off any #InflationFears as 10-year treasury yields also fell -6% over the week. 🤠 Growth rotation. With a transient inflation mindset leading to falling yields, Growth names surged last week Read More
New meme trade featuring AMC 🍿
🥳 Growth resurgence fades. End of May Growth party fades in June. S&P 500 almost rose another +1% last week, but on #Flight2Safety Value names. Growth underperformed relative to overall market, but still up. 🇺🇸 Domestic recovery keeps rolling. More #COVIDRecovery momentum with surging demand and travel volume, but also growing pains from supply and labor shortages. ️🎭 AMC’s Wide Ride. New #GameStonk AMC Read More
Risk Appetite Waning 🔻
😳 Bitcoin falls -25%. #Crypto leader Bitcoin fell -25% in past week and -50% since April all-time high. New restrictions, more regulation and nervous investors all contributing. 👟 Risk appetite waning. Overall S&P 500 only slightly down less than -1% last week, but #Flight2Safety sector rotation continues－Growth down -2% while Value up +1%. 🎭 Streaming plot twist. AT&T announced deal with Read More