Oct CPI Lifts Off 🚀

📈  Surging inflation. #InflationFears in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%-3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. 📉  Consumer sentiment falling. #InflationFears spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action 🦥

🦥  Cautious Fed. As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials 🏦 lower with it. ✈️  Travel time. #RevengeTravel got a shot in the arm with more positive #COVID19 pill data. Compounds strong #earnings as travel restrictions ease globally. All 👀 on Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas 🎄

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More

Market-Deflating Inflation

Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More

Blue or Red Pill? 😎 Green Pill! 📈

📉  September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%-first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸  Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Lehman 2.0: China Financial Crisis? 😬

🇨🇳 China financial crisis. Chinese property giant Evergrande remains on brink of bankrupcy. TLDR timeline: Markets 📉 Mon → 📈 Tues on payment assurances → 📈 rest of week despite indications obligations not met on Thu. Dubbed Lehman 2.0, we’re monitoring closely as China looks to stabilize situation. 🏦  Fed turning hawkish. Fed signaled purchase tapering soon though vague on timing. Accelerating rate Read More

Inflation Peaking? 😅

💸  Peaking inflation? #InflationFears moderating as August 12-month CPI rose only +0.3% M/M (still up 5.3% Y/Y). 2nd month of deceleration, but we’re still monitoring 2 main questions: (1) Does inflation recede? and (2) Could this be just a temporary reprieve due to #COVID19 delta? 🇨🇳  China concerns. #ChinaTension weighing on markets again as its #COVIDRecovery stalling from new delta outbreaks and more Read More

Cracks in App Store Ecosystem 📱

😷 Stalling recovery? #COVID19 delta surge moderating, but worries over #COVIDRecovery momentum rising. Spending data shows slowing growth and company #Back2Work plans continue to get pushed back. 😬  Risk appetite contracting. Market pullback not surprising given huge August gains and post another #Crypto rise and fall. Overall, broad sector weakness as S&P 500 fell almost -2% last week. 📱  App Ecosystem breach. District Court ruled Read More

Travel Hits Road Bump 🚧

🙅‍♀️ EU restricts US travel. Week started with Europe restricting US travelers due to rising #COVID19 delta cases. Travel and other #COVIDRecovery names lower with another roadblock. Over weekend, Sweden went further and imposed US travel ban. 🌳 Growth rotation. #COVIDRecovery weakness saw rotation into Growth names. In particular, Tech 💻 and Communications 📡 were strong. Overall Growth outperformed Value by almost +2%. Read More

Market has High, High Hopes 🎵

😅 Decelerating COVID. Domestic #COVID19 delta surge seems to be flattening. Investor optimism rising as fears of further restrictions or lockdowns hampering #COVIDRecovery ease. Hopes bolstered with FDA approving Pfizer vaccine as well. 💸 Powell backs EOY tapering. Fed Chair Powell supports tapering Fed purchases this year. Given all-time market highs, investors expected Fed support pullback, but were encouraged as Powell Read More