Back in Correction Territory 📉

😬  Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉  Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More

75 is the new 50 🏦

💸  Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬  Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More

Travel Takeoff 🛫

💸  Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March-new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More

Hawkish Plans 💸

📈  Yields spike. Fed March meeting minutes released signaled very hawkish discussions around raising yields in 0.5% increments and starting balance sheet reduction as soon as May. Fed looks to be VERY aggressive with #RisingYields to combat #InflationFears. 10-year treasury yield spiked +14% to new YTD highs. ✈️  Flight to safety. High-growth technology names led markets lower on #RisingYields and more reports Read More

Inverted Worries 📉

📉  Yields invert. 10-year treasury yield fell -5% from last week’s YTD peak. Yields briefly inverted sending markets sharply lower Thursday. A flattening yield curve signals economic weakness and particularly an inverted yield curve is a potential leading indicator for incoming recession. 🇺🇦  Shifting tides? Ukraine retaking some areas around capital Kiev as Russia claims to be Read More

Semis Made in the USA 🇺🇸

🛡  Biden visits NATO. President Biden traveled to NATO HQ in Belgium for discussions on ongoing #UkraineCrisis. Cautious market optimism with more cooperation, additional sanctions and forceful condemnation of Putin. S&P 500 maintains rally up another +2% last week. 💸  Rising yields chatter. Barely a week out from March meeting and investors already speculating on the next #RisingYields hike. Powell Read More

Age of Rising Yields 💸

🏦  Fed hikes rate. No surprise, Powell announced Fed Rate hiked by 0.25%. Increasingly more hawkish (likely overcompensating for misjudging “interim” inflation last year), Fed forecasts 6 more rate hikes this year exiting at ~1.9%. Welcome to the Age of #RisingYields. ️🛢  Crude oil moderates. Crude oil pricing pulled back as much as -25% from flirtations with $130 Read More

OPEC stepping in? 🛢

🛢  Weaponizing oil. US adds new #UkraineCrisis sanction banning Russian oil sending crude oil prices surging. However, OPEC member UAE signaled willingness to increase supply (potentially offsetting Russia ban impact). Crude oil prices fell -12% from highs on Wed while markets cheered surging -3%. 💸  Accelerating inflation. Feb 12-month CPI grew 7.9% as #InflationFears showing no signs of moderating near-term. Feb Read More

Ukraine Crisis 😨

⚔️  Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸  No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More

Trouble in Ukraine ⏱

🎉  Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀  CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More