Market Musings 11/6/2023

Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!

#Goldilocks pessimism continues to weigh on October markets, but renewed optimism propelling November…

Markets declined for the third straight month in October as investors fretted over geopolitical turmoil, economic uncertainty and disappointing earnings. The S&P 500 ends down -2%.

Global turmoil grew in October following Hamas attacking Israel and the retaliatory invasion of Gaza. Meanwhile, the US House was in disarray as former Speaker McCarthy was booted by a hard right mutiny and the Republicans went through 4 party nominees to land on a replacement. Markets are skeptical of new Speaker Mike Johnson with the US support to calm global unrest uncertain and odds for a government shutdown this month rising.

New macro data continues the trend. #LaborMarkets continue to slowly moderate, but still staying extremely resilient. #ConsumerNoConfidence still seems nonexistent as consumer spending remains strong. Leading the Fed to remain cryptic acknowledging moderating economic data while still indicating we’re not there yet on #RisingYields.

Q3 earnings seasons hit like a tornado. It was an extremely volatile month with wins and losses, but overall results skewed towards disappointment. #BigTech wasn’t able to carry the market like last quarter, but we did still see signs of optimism for #AI as a bright spot.

Towards the end of the month, both the tech-heavy NASDAQ and S&P 500 entered into correction territory from recent July highs. The S&P 500 fell as low as -4%, but bullish #Goldilocks soft landing hopes returned last week to recover half of the loss. November has continued the bullish trend already up +4% MTD.

The market has traded all year on the the optimistic prospect of a #Goldilocks soft landing. As we mentioned last month, we too are cautiously optimistic but still see many near-term headwinds that can derail it. We continue to monitor potential impact from a US government shutdown, consumer spending pullback and slowing inflation progress. November’s off to a solid start on renewed optimism, but we wouldn’t be surprised for expectations (and the market) to continue to oscillate.

While markets are likely to remain volatile near-term, we continue to recommend long-term investors to build positions more aggressively here.

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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.

Original Photo by Vlad Chețan.