Early Christmas for Markets 🎁
🧪 No US lockdown. Biden announced 🇺🇸 #COVID19 Omicron plan focusing on vaccination and testing vs. lockdowns. Fearing a shutdown similar to many in Europe, announcement kicked off week-long rally on Omicron optimism. 🥳 Lots of Omicron cheer. Looking past surging cases, investors rally into the holidays on #COVID19 Omicron optimism. It seems like Omicron surges to a peak quickly with milder Read More
Fed Turns Hawkish 🦅
🦅 Fed shifting to offense. Fed turns hawkish to combat surging #InflationFears. Fed accelerating tapering plan doubling monthly reduction to $30B and targeting 3 rate hikes in 2022 (up from just one expected last month). We think even the accelerated expectations may still be conservative… 😷 Omicron surging globally. While still milder symptoms generally, high transmissibility has #COVID19 Omicron surging Read More
Omicron Fear Fades 😅
😅 Omicron fears abating. Positive developments on the #COVID19 Omicron front has the market running. Cases so far seem mild with high transmissibility and Pfizer believes its 3-shot regimen (2 initial + 1 booster) protects against Omicron. 🙄 CPI up only 6.8%… Nov 12-month CPI grew 6.8%－a 40-year high. However, markets actually cheered the news with CPI coming in below #InflationFears estimate of Read More
The Omicron Rollercoaster 🎢
😬 Omicron anxiety. Big market movements all week with small bits of #COVID19 Omicron news trickling out. Investors remain super anxious with #COVIDRecovery uncertainty from new variant. S&P 500 ends down -1% for week. 💸 Transient no more? Powell is retiring describing inflation as ‘transient’ and considering accelerating asset tapering timeline. Quick tone change from just a couple weeks ago signaling #InflationFears risk Read More
A Different Black Friday 🦠
🦠 Omicron variant fears. New #COVID19 variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%. #COVIDRecovery names hit hard, but #RevengeTravel including hotels and airlines decimated. 🏦 Powell renominated. Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More
Strong Retail Demand 🛍
🛍 Strong retail spending. Retail #earnings were strong highlighting #COVIDRecovery consumer demand remains intact despite #InflationFears. However, #SupplyScare issues remain heading into Q4. Consumer up +4% for week. 🦠 4th Wave? #COVID19 resurgence in Europe as rising case has Austria mandating 20-day lockdown and Germany not ruling out potential lockdown either. Even cases troughed weeks ago and rising again. Volatile market as #COVIDRecovery keeps starting and stopping. ️💸 Read More
Oct CPI Lifts Off 🚀
📈 Surging inflation. #InflationFears in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%－3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. 📉 Consumer sentiment falling. #InflationFears spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More
Fed’s Inaction Action 🦥
🦥 Cautious Fed. As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials 🏦 lower with it. ✈️ Travel time. #RevengeTravel got a shot in the arm with more positive #COVID19 pill data. Compounds strong #earnings as travel restrictions ease globally. All 👀 on Read More
Supply Scare 👻
🚢 Supply shortages. #SupplyScare has companies scrambling to build and ship products. Component shortages, labor shortages, rising fuel costs and delayed logistics all compounding the issue. Not boding well for Q4 🎄 season. ⚾️ Revenue strikes out. Revenue missing Street expectations is a recurring theme this #earnings season. #COVIDRecovery demand seems to be there, but companies can’t produce enough product due to #SupplyScare issues. 💸 Yields Read More