A Different Black Friday ūü¶†

ūü¶†¬† Omicron variant fears.¬†New¬†#COVID19¬†variant Omicron surging in South Africa has countries globally restricting travel again. Still a lot unknown about the new variant, but rampant speculation and thinly traded Black Friday sent markets nose-diving. S&P 500 fell over -2%.¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†names hit hard, but¬†#RevengeTravel¬†including hotels and airlines decimated. ūüŹ¶¬† Powell renominated.¬†Overshadowed by Omicron, Biden renominated Fed Chair Read More

Strong Retail Demand ūüõć

ūüõ欆 Strong retail spending.¬†Retail¬†#earnings¬†were strong highlighting¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†consumer demand remains intact despite¬†#InflationFears. However,¬†#SupplyScare¬†issues remain heading into Q4. Consumer up +4% for week. ūü¶†¬† 4th Wave?¬†#COVID19¬†resurgence in Europe as rising case has Austria mandating 20-day lockdown and Germany not ruling out potential lockdown either. Even¬†¬†cases troughed weeks ago and rising again. Volatile market as¬†#COVIDRecovery¬†keeps starting and stopping. ÔłŹūüíł¬† Read More

Oct CPI Lifts Off ūüöÄ

ūü﹬† Surging inflation.¬†#InflationFears¬†in high gear with Oct 12-month CPI rising 6.2%Ôľć3x higher than 2% annual target. Investors concerned Fed moving too slow with stubborn ‘transient’ expectations. 10-year treasury yield rebounds up +9% after pullback from conservative Fed action. ūüďȬ† Consumer sentiment falling.¬†#InflationFears¬†spilling onto Mainstreet. Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 10-year low driven by surging Read More

Fed’s Inaction Action ūü¶•

ūü¶•¬† Cautious Fed.¬†As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transient¬†#InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with Financials¬†ūüŹ¶¬†lower with it. ‚úąÔłŹ¬† Travel time.¬†#RevengeTravel¬†got a shot in the arm with more positive¬†#COVID19¬†pill data. Compounds strong¬†#earnings¬†as travel restrictions ease globally. All¬†ūüĎÄ on Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas ūüéĄ

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More