Fed’s Inaction Action šŸ¦„

šŸ¦„Ā  Cautious Fed.Ā As expected, Fed starting to taper asset purchases by $15B/month. However, Fed remains steadfast in transientĀ #InflationFears expectations tempering rate hike forecast. 10-year treasury yield fell -7% during the week with FinancialsĀ šŸ¦Ā lower with it. āœˆļøĀ  Travel time.Ā #RevengeTravelĀ got a shot in the arm with more positiveĀ #COVID19Ā pill data. Compounds strongĀ #earningsĀ as travel restrictions ease globally. AllĀ šŸ‘€ on Read More

How the Supply Chain is Stealing Christmas šŸŽ„

Market Musings 11/3/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We expect supply chain improvement starting early next year, but unfortunately, #SupplyScare is likely peaking in the all-important Q4 holiday season. It was a recurring theme this #earnings season. Company after company reported Read More

Pantry Loading 2.0? šŸ§»

šŸš¢Ā  Supply chain woes.Ā Rising concernsĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ hampered by persistent supply chain issues. Consumer companies noting some consumer hoarding behavior (Pantry Loading 2.0?) as well as retail ad demand lower for holiday season. All-time high energy prices just compounding investor concerns. šŸ’øĀ  Yields resume climb.Ā Erasing last week’s dip,Ā #RisingYieldsĀ resume with 10-year treasury yield up 4%. MoreĀ #InflationFearsĀ bolstered by Powell’s ‘time Read More

Banking on COVID Recovery šŸ¤‘

šŸ’øĀ  Yields stabilizing.Ā #RisingYieldsĀ breaks 3-week streak with 10-year treasury yield ending week down -2%. Yields peaked Mon, dropped -6% by Thur and rebounded +4% Fri. The culprit flattening yield curves as investors worry Fed underestimatingĀ #InflationFearsĀ and will need to accelerate rate hikes. šŸ’»Ā  Growth rebound.Ā S&P 500 finished up almost +2% with high-growth Tech leading the way up Read More

New Adventures of Old Auto šŸš˜

šŸ’øĀ  Yields keep on rising.Ā For 3rd straight week,Ā #RisingYieldsĀ continue tacking on another 9%. Surging energy prices, strongĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ data and incoming Fed action continues to driveĀ #InflationFearsĀ andĀ #Flight2Safety rotation. šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³Ā  Biden/Xi virtual summit.Ā White House reengaging Beijing holding a virtual summit later this year. Markets popped Thursday onĀ #ChinaTensionĀ relief with S&P 500 finishing +1% for week. šŸš™Ā  Legacy auto in spotlight.Ā General Motors Read More

Market-Deflating Inflation

Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More

Blue or Red Pill? šŸ˜Ž Green Pill! šŸ“ˆ

šŸ“‰Ā  September pullback.Ā S&P 500 finished September down -5%ļ¼first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors facedĀ #InflationFears,Ā #RisingYieldsĀ andĀ #ChinaTension. šŸ’øĀ  Yields keep rising.Ā 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains.Ā #InflationFearsĀ in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. StrongĀ #Flight2SafetyĀ rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Inflation Peaking? šŸ˜…

šŸ’øĀ  Peaking inflation?Ā #InflationFearsĀ moderating as August 12-month CPI rose only +0.3% M/M (still up 5.3% Y/Y). 2nd month of deceleration, but we’re still monitoring 2 main questions: (1) Does inflation recede? and (2) Could this be just a temporary reprieve due toĀ #COVID19Ā delta? šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³Ā  China concerns.Ā #ChinaTensionĀ weighing on markets again as itsĀ #COVIDRecoveryĀ stalling from new delta outbreaks and more Read More

Schrodinger’s Inflation? šŸ˜ø

šŸ’Ŗ More strong economic data.Ā Despite rising case,Ā #COVIDRecoveryĀ still strong as 12-month consumer price index grew 5.4% again in July.Ā #InflationFearsĀ tug ‘o war with another high inflation month, but, at the same time, not accelerating. ļøšŸ’øĀ  Yields keep rising.Ā 10-year treasury yields up another +4% last week, but as much as +9% Thursday before Friday’s -5%. pullback. #RisingYields resurgence Read More

Market sentiment turns bearish šŸ»

šŸ˜· Domestic COVID is back.Ā After months of steadily declines, šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øĀ #COVID19Ā rising across cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Not 4th wave yet, but some counties already reimposing mask mandates. While primarily in unvaccinated areas, investors still spooked by stallingĀ #COVIDRecovery. šŸ’ø Is inflation really transient?Ā Fed chair Powell reiterated transient inflation expectations after June’s 12-month CPI rose to +5.4%.Ā #InflationFearsĀ getting louder Read More