Market Musings 4/9/2024

Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!

With Q1 wrapped up, we wanted to take a step back and check in on how our 2024 expectations are faring…

Delayed #RateCuts 🏦

Unsurprisingly, the macro story of the year has been #RateCuts. As expected, expectations were way too high entering the year with six cuts anticipated. However, the market rally has been incredibly resilient despite forecasts dropping to only three cuts just in the quarter. Given the strong #LaborMarkets and consumer spending, we wouldn’t be surprised for more delay and even lower number of actual #RateCuts this year.

The #AI Revolution 🤖

The #AI party was alive and well in Q1. We kicked off with another big beat and raise by Nvidia followed by big outlook wins across the supply chain from memory chips to servers. However, at these valuation levels, we believe the broad technology benefits are likely mostly priced-in. We expect to see some bifurcation going forward with the #AI supply chain, services and platform providers continuing to outperform, but the application level will need to prove its worth.

What #GlobalTension? 🌎

While Russia’s Ukraine invasion and Israel’s war in Gaza are ongoing, #GlobalTension has largely taken a backseat for the market. There’s been some more #ChinaTension technology bans and some #CyberSecurity hacks that grabbed investors’ attention for maybe a day, but overall hasn’t been market moving. While unlikely near-term, we still believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic for the markets particularly #AI given a huge reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC to manufacture the leading edge chips.

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As of the publish date, Ursa portfolios may own NVDA and do not own TSMC with no plans to open any positions within the next five days. The stocks mentioned in this article may cease to be owned by Ursa portfolios at any point.

The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.

Original Photo by fauxels.