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Market Musings 5/9/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We focus on fundamentally strong investments with long-term time horizons to weather market down cycles Coming into 2022, market sentiment was already increasingly bearish with aggressive #RisingYields expected to combat surging #InflationFears. #UkraineCrisis Read More
😬 Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉 Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More
📉 Yields invert. 10-year treasury yield fell -5% from last week’s YTD peak. Yields briefly inverted sending markets sharply lower Thursday. A flattening yield curve signals economic weakness and particularly an inverted yield curve is a potential leading indicator for incoming recession. 🇺🇦 Shifting tides? Ukraine retaking some areas around capital Kiev as Russia claims to be Read More
🛡 Biden visits NATO. President Biden traveled to NATO HQ in Belgium for discussions on ongoing #UkraineCrisis. Cautious market optimism with more cooperation, additional sanctions and forceful condemnation of Putin. S&P 500 maintains rally up another +2% last week. 💸 Rising yields chatter. Barely a week out from March meeting and investors already speculating on the next #RisingYields hike. Powell Read More
🏦 Fed hikes rate. No surprise, Powell announced Fed Rate hiked by 0.25%. Increasingly more hawkish (likely overcompensating for misjudging “interim” inflation last year), Fed forecasts 6 more rate hikes this year exiting at ~1.9%. Welcome to the Age of #RisingYields. ️🛢 Crude oil moderates. Crude oil pricing pulled back as much as -25% from flirtations with $130 Read More
🛢 Weaponizing oil. US adds new #UkraineCrisis sanction banning Russian oil sending crude oil prices surging. However, OPEC member UAE signaled willingness to increase supply (potentially offsetting Russia ban impact). Crude oil prices fell -12% from highs on Wed while markets cheered surging -3%. 💸 Accelerating inflation. Feb 12-month CPI grew 7.9% as #InflationFears showing no signs of moderating near-term. Feb Read More
☢️ Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬 Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More
⚔️ Ukraine invasion. After weeks of #UkraineCrisis escalation, Russia invaded Ukraine on Wednesday night (US time). US and other NATO nations retaliated by imposing severe sanctions on Russia with little deterrence impact so far. Initially plummeting -3% premarket, S&P 500 rallied ending up +1.5% on Thursday. 🗣 Russia ready to talk? Russia agreed to send a delegation to not-so-neutral Read More
⚔️ Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸 No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More