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💸 Stabilizing, but still high. New CPI data with April inflation rising +8.3% Y/Y. First monthly decline in 8 months, but still extremely elevated. Readout likely not changing Fed’s aggressive #RisingYields plan yet. Markets continue sharp slide with S&P 500 down -5% through Thursday. 🛬 Hard or soft landing? Bearish sentiment continues to dominate as investors debate whether Fed #RisingYields plan Read More
Market Musings 5/9/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! We focus on fundamentally strong investments with long-term time horizons to weather market down cycles Coming into 2022, market sentiment was already increasingly bearish with aggressive #RisingYields expected to combat surging #InflationFears. #UkraineCrisis Read More
😬 Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉 Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More
💸 Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬 Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More
💸 Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March－new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More
📈 Yields spike. Fed March meeting minutes released signaled very hawkish discussions around raising yields in 0.5% increments and starting balance sheet reduction as soon as May. Fed looks to be VERY aggressive with #RisingYields to combat #InflationFears. 10-year treasury yield spiked +14% to new YTD highs. ✈️ Flight to safety. High-growth technology names led markets lower on #RisingYields and more reports Read More
📉 Yields invert. 10-year treasury yield fell -5% from last week’s YTD peak. Yields briefly inverted sending markets sharply lower Thursday. A flattening yield curve signals economic weakness and particularly an inverted yield curve is a potential leading indicator for incoming recession. 🇺🇦 Shifting tides? Ukraine retaking some areas around capital Kiev as Russia claims to be Read More
🛡 Biden visits NATO. President Biden traveled to NATO HQ in Belgium for discussions on ongoing #UkraineCrisis. Cautious market optimism with more cooperation, additional sanctions and forceful condemnation of Putin. S&P 500 maintains rally up another +2% last week. 💸 Rising yields chatter. Barely a week out from March meeting and investors already speculating on the next #RisingYields hike. Powell Read More
🏦 Fed hikes rate. No surprise, Powell announced Fed Rate hiked by 0.25%. Increasingly more hawkish (likely overcompensating for misjudging “interim” inflation last year), Fed forecasts 6 more rate hikes this year exiting at ~1.9%. Welcome to the Age of #RisingYields. ️🛢 Crude oil moderates. Crude oil pricing pulled back as much as -25% from flirtations with $130 Read More