Pantry Loading 2.0? 🧻

🚢  Supply chain woes. Rising concerns #COVIDRecovery hampered by persistent supply chain issues. Consumer companies noting some consumer hoarding behavior (Pantry Loading 2.0?) as well as retail ad demand lower for holiday season. All-time high energy prices just compounding investor concerns. 💸  Yields resume climb. Erasing last week’s dip, #RisingYields resume with 10-year treasury yield up 4%. More #InflationFears bolstered by Powell’s ‘time Read More

Banking on COVID Recovery 🤑

💸  Yields stabilizing. #RisingYields breaks 3-week streak with 10-year treasury yield ending week down -2%. Yields peaked Mon, dropped -6% by Thur and rebounded +4% Fri. The culprit flattening yield curves as investors worry Fed underestimating #InflationFears and will need to accelerate rate hikes. 💻  Growth rebound. S&P 500 finished up almost +2% with high-growth Tech leading the way up Read More

New Adventures of Old Auto 🚘

💸  Yields keep on rising. For 3rd straight week, #RisingYields continue tacking on another 9%. Surging energy prices, strong #COVIDRecovery data and incoming Fed action continues to drive #InflationFears and #Flight2Safety rotation. 🇨🇳  Biden/Xi virtual summit. White House reengaging Beijing holding a virtual summit later this year. Markets popped Thursday on #ChinaTension relief with S&P 500 finishing +1% for week. 🚙  Legacy auto in spotlight. General Motors Read More

Market-Deflating Inflation

Market Musings 10/6/2021 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Conservative Fed playing catch up to surging inflation data. We expect more volatility as incoming Fed action gets concrete timeline. High growth likely impacted; portfolios positioned for more #Flight2Safety. Markets have been incredibly Read More

Blue or Red Pill? 😎 Green Pill! 📈

📉  September pullback. S&P 500 finished September down -5%-first red month after 7 consecutive green ones. Macro uncertainty drove market correction off all-time highs as investors faced #InflationFears, #RisingYields and #ChinaTension. 💸  Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields rose another +5% extending last week gains. #InflationFears in focus on energy pricing surging and supply chain woes. Strong #Flight2Safety rotation with Growth down over -3% for Read More

Inflation Peaking? 😅

💸  Peaking inflation? #InflationFears moderating as August 12-month CPI rose only +0.3% M/M (still up 5.3% Y/Y). 2nd month of deceleration, but we’re still monitoring 2 main questions: (1) Does inflation recede? and (2) Could this be just a temporary reprieve due to #COVID19 delta? 🇨🇳  China concerns. #ChinaTension weighing on markets again as its #COVIDRecovery stalling from new delta outbreaks and more Read More

Schrodinger’s Inflation? 😸

💪 More strong economic data. Despite rising case, #COVIDRecovery still strong as 12-month consumer price index grew 5.4% again in July. #InflationFears tug ‘o war with another high inflation month, but, at the same time, not accelerating. ️💸  Yields keep rising. 10-year treasury yields up another +4% last week, but as much as +9% Thursday before Friday’s -5%. pullback. #RisingYields resurgence Read More

Market sentiment turns bearish 🐻

😷 Domestic COVID is back. After months of steadily declines, 🇺🇸 #COVID19 rising across cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Not 4th wave yet, but some counties already reimposing mask mandates. While primarily in unvaccinated areas, investors still spooked by stalling #COVIDRecovery. 💸 Is inflation really transient? Fed chair Powell reiterated transient inflation expectations after June’s 12-month CPI rose to +5.4%. #InflationFears getting louder Read More

Delta driving COVID resurgence 🦠

🤷‍♂️  What market uncertainty? Investors largely shook off #InflationFears and #COVID19 resurgence sending S&P 500 for another green week. Growth rotation continues to lead market up. 🧐  Banks slide on falling yields. 10-year treasury yields slipped -10% through Thursday before rebounding +5% Friday. Bond investors likely buying up treasuries as macro uncertainty rising. Banks 🏦 dip along with rates. 🦠  Domestic cases rising Read More

Fed expectations creeping up 👻

💸 Rate bump in 2023? Fresh Fed commentary-(1) rate hike accelerating with potential double rate bump in 2023 and (2) 2022 bump likelihood increasing with dot plot up to 7 of 18 (up from 4 last month). S&P 500 ended down -2% for the week. 🤷‍♂️  Transient mindset benefitting Growth. Investors continue largely shaking off #InflationFears viewing high inflation Read More