75 is the new 50 🏦

💸  Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬  Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More

Travel Takeoff 🛫

💸  Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March-new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More

Hawkish Plans 💸

📈  Yields spike. Fed March meeting minutes released signaled very hawkish discussions around raising yields in 0.5% increments and starting balance sheet reduction as soon as May. Fed looks to be VERY aggressive with #RisingYields to combat #InflationFears. 10-year treasury yield spiked +14% to new YTD highs. ✈️  Flight to safety. High-growth technology names led markets lower on #RisingYields and more reports Read More

Inverted Worries 📉

📉  Yields invert. 10-year treasury yield fell -5% from last week’s YTD peak. Yields briefly inverted sending markets sharply lower Thursday. A flattening yield curve signals economic weakness and particularly an inverted yield curve is a potential leading indicator for incoming recession. 🇺🇦  Shifting tides? Ukraine retaking some areas around capital Kiev as Russia claims to be Read More

OPEC stepping in? 🛢

🛢  Weaponizing oil. US adds new #UkraineCrisis sanction banning Russian oil sending crude oil prices surging. However, OPEC member UAE signaled willingness to increase supply (potentially offsetting Russia ban impact). Crude oil prices fell -12% from highs on Wed while markets cheered surging -3%. 💸  Accelerating inflation. Feb 12-month CPI grew 7.9% as #InflationFears showing no signs of moderating near-term. Feb Read More

Ukraine Resistance 🇺🇦

☢️  Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬  Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More

Ukraine Crisis 😨

⚔️  Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸  No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More

Trouble in Ukraine ⏱

🎉  Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀  CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More

February Recovery? 🤞

☕️  Jittery markets. Markets remain extremely volatile as investor reevaluate lofty growth valuations. Winners this week include AMD surging on strong growth outlook and Amazon hiking Prime price; while losers include Meta and PayPal plummeting on slowing growth. ️🦠  Omicron in decline. 🇺🇸 #COVID19 Omicron cases sharply declining down -60% from mid-Jan peak. Investors looking to get #COVIDRecovery party started, but Read More

Bottoming Correction?

😳  Aggressive Fed looms. New Fed commentary alluded to increasingly aggressive stance, but didn’t provide much concrete details. Without committing, Fed did signal #RisingYield rate hikes starting in March and balance sheet reduction in the works. We believe Fed policy shifts faster this year with less consideration of market impact to aggressively combat #InflationFears. 💻  Big Tech to the Read More