Soft Landing Optimism 🛬

🏦  Easing Fed? Strong market rebound on improving inflation data and potential Fed reassessment after couple more #RisingYields hikes. Investors looking to call bottom, but we’ll see with macro data also deteriorating. Markets green with S&P 500 rebounding up almost +7% last week. 👻  Oh Snap! Snap negatively revised its outlook from just a month ago blaming rapidly deteriorating Read More

Consumer Crumbles 🛍

🛍  Retail selloff. Retailers’ profitability hit sounded the alarm with negative impact from higher markdowns, freight costs, supply disruptions and labor costs. Perfect storm of #RecessionWatch fears fueled market panic. Consumer sectors badly underperformed very bearish market week down -8%. 💋  Flirting with bear market. Another bearish market week as S&P 500 dipped again into bear territory. While a Read More

Schrodinger’s Economy 😼

💸  Stabilizing, but still high. New CPI data with April inflation rising +8.3% Y/Y. First monthly decline in 8 months, but still extremely elevated. Readout likely not changing Fed’s aggressive #RisingYields plan yet. Markets continue sharp slide with S&P 500 down -5% through Thursday. 🛬  Hard or soft landing? Bearish sentiment continues to dominate as investors debate whether Fed #RisingYields plan Read More

Back in Correction Territory 📉

😬  Recession worries. Big earnings week with >40% of our companies reporting. Main takeaway being #COVID19 winners like e-commerce and WFH giving way to #COVIDRecovery like travel. #UkraineCrisis pressuring near-term outlooks, but not derailing long-term prospects. Overall very bearish sentiment with S&P 500 down -3% for week. 📉  Correction territory (again). Markets wrap up a very bearish April. S&P 500 fell -9% in Read More

75 is the new 50 🏦

💸  Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬  Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More

Travel Takeoff 🛫

💸  Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March-new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More