Market Musings 7/15/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
June’s Deflation: All good or just a temporary lull?
#Inflation sharply pulled back in June, but it may just be the calm before the storm.
Consumer #Inflation fell -0.4% in June bringing the annual CPI rate down to just 3.5%. Meanwhile, the more stable Core CPI was completely flat. Both metrics came in significantly better than economists were forecasting.
The good news continued on the producer costs side, too. Producer #Inflation surprisingly fell -0.3% cooling the annual rate to 5.5% while Core PPI rose just 0.1%. Again, both beating expectations.
This double-dose of cooler #Inflation data sent the odds of a July #RateHikes down to just 12% from over 40% before the reports. Markets were initially ecstatic, but that optimism is already fading fast.
The problem? The US-Iran #GlobalTension war is rapidly heating back up. That mid-June ceasefire deal is now on the brink of collapse.
While oil prices bottomed back to pre-war levels by the end of June, they’ve been sharply rebounding over the past week.
Even retail gas prices, which had been slowly drifting lower, just saw their first major daily price spike today.
While this #Inflation data gives the Fed plenty of room to hold off on immediate #RateHikes, investors are worried that June’s deflation was just a temporary lull. And if the war fully reignites, hotter #Inflation will quickly kick back in.
Expect #GlobalTension war updates to resume driving the market in near-term as Wall Street reassesses these massive energy #Inflation risks. Market may go back to ignoring it again if the White House pivots or even just drags their feet on further action. As before, pay attention to oil pricing for the market’s sentiment.
No Ursa account yet? Download Ursa here!
The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.