Inflation Focused

Market Musings 8/10/2026

Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!

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Focus is on this week’s July #Inflation for #RateHikes signal…

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A weak #LaborMarkets jobs report last week gave investors hope that the Fed might slow any #RateHikes decision. However, with the #GlobalTension US-Iran standoff hurting energy markets, this week’s #Inflation data is likely the bigger decision maker.

Let’s take a look.

First, last week’s July jobs report. The good news: unemployment unexpectedly fell a tick in June. However, payrolls whiffed losing -23K jobs compared to expectations for an 83K gain.

It was even worse when you factor in the downward revisions. Including the May and June updates, July was net down 126,000 jobs.

It was a very weak report, but markets cheered. They’re hoping a weakening #LaborMarkets will force the Fed to hold off on further #RateHikes.

Now, focus flips to #Inflation this week.

On Wednesday, we get July CPI. Economists expect headline CPI to slightly rise with the core metric rising just a little more.

Then Thursday, July PPI lands. Producer costs are expected to rise more with the core metric also higher.

So, what’s the deal?

We can see why markets are comfortable with the weaker #LaborMarkets for now. If #Inflation lands in-line with expectations, we’re looking at minimal #Inflation and a weaker case for #RateHikes.

However, the US-Iran #GlobalTension standoff is the elephant in the room. Crude oil prices spiked 22% in July. While it may not show up fully in July, it’s likely to pressure August numbers… especially with no reopening of the strait in sight.

Markets may optimistically rise on in-line or better #Inflation data, but that may be short-lived. We could also see worse data accelerating #RateHikes fears. We’ll see starting Wednesday…