Market Musings 6/30/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Oil, #RateHikes and #AI likely to drive stocks again in July…
Markets finished June down just -1% despite a rollercoaster of a month.
First, markets tumbled and recovered from the Fed’s pivot to #RateHikes. Then, #AI sentiment soured before mostly recovering by the end of the month.
Meanwhile, US-Iran #GlobalTension was on-again, off-again all month. However, despite the bickering, energy markets stabilized anyways as crude oil plummeted about -20% while average gas prices dropped -12%.
So, what’s the deal? Heading into July, we’re seeing more of the same catalysts.
On the US & Iran front, markets are likely to continue to ignore the aggressive #GlobalTension rhetoric. Oil pricing is the real barometer and it basically back to pre-war levels.
Did pricing overshoot reality due to just a sudden supply glut? Maybe, but we’ll know more with how oil stabilizes and gas trends through July.
This leads into the #RateHikes debate. #LaborMarkets were hot in May, and we’ll find out this Thursday if that momentum carried into June. Meanwhile, #Inflation is climbing, but if oil stays down, this spike could prove to be just interim.
While the Fed has pivoted towards #RateHikes, officials are clearly waiting on more data before any decisions are made.
Meanwhile, #AI will continue to be in focus. Hyperscalers are getting punished for being the moneybags, but infrastructure buildout names continue to soar on the near-term demand.
Expect more volatility in July, but any #AI weakness could be a boon for a broader market rotation… as long as the economy holds up.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by fauxels.