Market Musings 7/29/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Fed holds rates steady, but pressure building for incoming #RateHikes…
No #RateHikes yet from the Fed, but they’re starting to lean towards it. With #Inflation stubbornly sticking above the 2% target, Fed officials appear more concerned with headwinds than tailwinds.
What has the Fed worried?
First, the US-Iran #GlobalTension. While recent strikes appear to be on pause, the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Red Sea remain closed. Crude oil is up 28% this month while gas is on the rise too up 6%.
Second, policy pressures. The White House is back on the #Tariffs train which threatens to keep consumer prices rising faster. We also don’t think recent immigration policies have truly shown up yet either in the #LaborMarkets data…
Finally, the #AI buildout. Surging demand for data centers is spilling over and isn’t isolated. It’s driving up electricity prices as well as electronics.
With #Inflation pressure mounting, markets are bracing for #RateHikes before year end with growing odds for two or even three increases.
So, what now?
Thursday, we’ll get the Fed’s favorite #Inflation gauge: the June PCE data.
Stronger #Inflation data would continue to sour markets. However, even if it mirrors the cooling CPI and PPI numbers from earlier this month, we’d expect investors are already looking past it to the July data next month.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.