Market Musings 6/17/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
#Inflation fears drive Fed towards #RateHikes
Markets tumble as the Fed just officially shifted gears into #RateHikes mode.
At the meeting today, interest rates were held flat, but the updated rate forecast has turned hawkish. Half of the Fed is now forecasting at least 1 #RateHikes while essentially the rest have shifted to just no #RateCuts. There’s 1 outlier still projecting a cut, but he’s always an outlier. Of note, new Fed Chair Warsh chose to abstain from making any projections.
What does that mean?
The interest rate path has officially shifted for 2026. Incoming #RateHikes are solidifying for investors. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of at least one hike this year and the odds for a second are now over 50%.
This led to the S&P 500 tumbling today along with treasury yields spiking.
This has all been set in motion by the US-Iran war driving up oil prices－essentially the lifeblood of the global economy. A ceasefire deal is supposedly ready to be signed, but the #Inflation damage is already done. Maybe, it’ll just be interim, but remember how that turned out for the Fed during COVID…
What now?
Next up is the May PCE data next Thursday. It’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. So, it’ll likely be the tie breaker from the mixed CPI/PPI #Inflation results last week.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.