Market Musings 2/2/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
January finishes higher despite #Tariffs threats, #RateCuts uncertainty, mixed #AI earnings
Greenland, mixed #Inflation, and questionable #AI earnings—a volatile start to 2026, but markets powered through. Despite some ups and downs, the S&P 500 finished January up about 1.4%.
January opened on shaky ground as #LaborMarkets data was mixed. Openings fell sharply and private payrolls missed. However, while nonfarm payrolls remained soft, unemployment surprisingly fell reinforcing a stabilizing, but not breaking #LaborMarkets narrative.
Meanwhile, #Inflation progress was unclear. Consumer #Inflation remained fairly contained, but producer #Inflation is running hotter. The gap kept markets uneasy about whether #Tariffs are still filtering through to prices.
Fed policy uncertainty added to the volatility. The White House put more pressure on Fed Chair Powell with a DOJ investigation while also nominating Kevin Warsh to be his replacement. The nomination choice was interesting as Warsh historically has been seen as more hawkish on #Inflation.
Greenland was a big market shock, but luckily only lasted about a week. The new #Tariffs and #GlobalTension military threats were quickly walked back.
Finally, earnings so far have been a mixed bag. #BigTech results were mixed as #AI spending is alive and well, but the monetization continues to be a big question mark.
Looking forward, investors are already turning more cautiously optimistic again on the remaining earnings. Meanwhile, economic data returns to a more normal cadence with markets focused on confirming the #Goldilocks soft landing narrative remains intact.
Absent a major market shock, we think February likely remains choppy, but with never-faltering investor optimism, we still see the broader market continuing to melt up… at least near-term.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.