Market Musings 12/5/2024
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
A big jobs report coming tomorrow.
It’s been a #LaborMarkets week with new data all week.
First, the JOLTS data was pretty good with job openings rising to 7.74M in October－topping expectations for 7.49M. Meanwhile, the quits rate increased to 2.1% (from 1.9%) while layoffs fell to 1.63M (from 1.80M). Only new hires were weaker dipping to 5.31M (from 5.58M).
Next, the ADP private jobs data came in a bit soft with private employment dropping more than expected to 146K (from 184K).
And, finally today, jobless claims increased more than expected.
So what’s left?
The big one－the November jobs report tomorrow.
October nonfarm payrolls tanked to 12K, but shrugged off and blamed on impact from strikes and hurricanes.
However, November will likely need to make up for it with 214K expected. That’s just slightly lower than September’s 223K, but well-above the summer months average of ~113K.
As we’ve mentioned before, #LaborMarkets are a key piece for a coveted #Goldilocks soft landing. With lagging data from October, we see forecasts pretty unreliable and setting up for a lot of volatility tomorrow.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.