OPEC stepping in? 🛢

🛢  Weaponizing oil. US adds new #UkraineCrisis sanction banning Russian oil sending crude oil prices surging. However, OPEC member UAE signaled willingness to increase supply (potentially offsetting Russia ban impact). Crude oil prices fell -12% from highs on Wed while markets cheered surging -3%. 💸  Accelerating inflation. Feb 12-month CPI grew 7.9% as #InflationFears showing no signs of moderating near-term. Feb Read More

Ukraine Resistance 🇺🇦

☢️  Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬  Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More

War in Ukraine ⚔️

⚔️  Ukraine invasion. After weeks of #UkraineCrisis escalation, Russia invaded Ukraine on Wednesday night (US time). US and other NATO nations retaliated by imposing severe sanctions on Russia with little deterrence impact so far. Initially plummeting -3% premarket, S&P 500 rallied ending up +1.5% on Thursday. 🗣  Russia ready to talk? Russia agreed to send a delegation to not-so-neutral Read More

Ukraine Crisis 😨

⚔️  Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸  No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More

Trouble in Ukraine ⏱

ğŸŽ‰Â  Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀  CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More

February Recovery? ğŸ¤ž

☕️  Jittery markets. Markets remain extremely volatile as investor reevaluate lofty growth valuations. Winners this week include AMD surging on strong growth outlook and Amazon hiking Prime price; while losers include Meta and PayPal plummeting on slowing growth. ️🦠  Omicron in decline. 🇺🇸 #COVID19 Omicron cases sharply declining down -60% from mid-Jan peak. Investors looking to get #COVIDRecovery party started, but Read More

Bottoming Correction?

😳  Aggressive Fed looms. New Fed commentary alluded to increasingly aggressive stance, but didn’t provide much concrete details. Without committing, Fed did signal #RisingYield rate hikes starting in March and balance sheet reduction in the works. We believe Fed policy shifts faster this year with less consideration of market impact to aggressively combat #InflationFears. 💻  Big Tech to the Read More

Fed’s No Comment Comments 🤨

Market Musings 1/26/2022 Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store! Fed commentary alluded to increasingly aggressive stance, but didn’t provide much concrete details. We continue to believe Fed will need to get more aggressive through 2022 to combat #InflationFears. #RisingYields fear has fueled Read More

Fearful Market Plunge 📉

😳  Fearful markets. Widespread market fears of new macro environment with aggressive #RisingYields. While last two year’s mantra was “buy the dip”, 2022 looking more like “sell the rally”. S&P 500 fell almost -6% last week with every day ending down despite fleeting intraday gains. High-growth and tech heavy NASDAQ already in correction down -14% since mid-Nov Read More

Market Looking for Direction 🤔

🥱  Dec inflation hits 7%. Dec 12-month CPI hit 7% up from Nov’s 6.8% reading. Viewing #InflationFears potentially moderating, investors initially cheered results Wed though optimism lost stream by end of day. 🧐  Stagnant market. Markets struggling for direction as investors remain focused on #RisingYields. Some analysts now predicting 4 rate hikes this year while Fed trying to soothe markets Read More