Market Musings 10/2/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
A wild September market ends down; what’s next in October?
September was a wild ride, but the S&P 500 ends down -0.5% amid rampant Middle East #GlobalTensions, Fed #RateHikes and sticky #Inflation.
The Fed #RateHikes with a 25 bps bump to 3.75% to 4.00% with potentially more on the table. It also seems rates will stay higher for longer with sticky #Inflation.
Meanwhile, #LaborMarkets remained strong adding, but #ConsumerConfidence tumbled on fears for a #Recession. This is likely driven by the Middle East #GlobalTension that has sent gas prices soaring…
Speaking of the Middle East #GlobalTension, there doesn’t seem to be any near-term off ramp yet. Strikes are ongoing and keeping oil prices elevated. However, markets do remain optimistic with every whiff of deal sending stocks on a rally.
So, what now? We expect more of the same in October…
Middle East #GlobalTension progress or lack thereof will be closely watched. While still not really driving core #Inflation, impact from surging oil prices will have to flow through eventually.
Investors will be also be on #RateHikes watch. Bond yields have been driving premiums higher despite the Fed’s slow uptake. We’ll have another Fed meeting at the end of October with rampant speculations on if they’ll hike leading up to it.
Meanwhile, Q3 earnings season will kick off mid-month. Companies haven’t really missed a beat so far this year. Let’s see if that continues…
Expect a volatile October－buckle up!
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.