Oil Inflation

Market Musings 3/11/2026

Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!

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Consumer #Inflation stable, but oil keeps markets nervous…

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Consumer #Inflation remains light… so why aren’t markets celebrating?

Overall February CPI rose +0.3% M/M and +2.4% over the past year—basically right in line with expectations.

Core CPI (which investors care more about) was slightly lower at +0.2% for the month with annual up +2.5%.

Overall, another moderate #Inflation report. No major surprises, but markets didn’t exactly celebrate. Stocks actually finished the day slightly lower.

So, why? Well, investors are likely more focused on the future.

Crude oil has surged from the #GlobaTension since the US struck Iran. While Monday saw some relief, prices have already climbed back near where we left off last week.

The most obvious impact will be gas prices and airline fares, but the bigger concern is transportation and logistics which can eventually push #Inflation higher across the board.

So, what’s next?

First, we’ll get January PCE on Friday. It’s more backward-looking, but recent PCE #Inflation readings have been running hotter than CPI, even before the US-Iran #GlobalTension. Expectations are for another higher PCE reading.

Then next Wednesday, we’ll get PPI. Producer #Inflation has been running hotter than consumer, so investors will be watching closely to see if that trend continues.

Wednesday also brings the next Fed meeting. Markets will be focused on how the Fed views #Inflation and whether rising oil prices could complicate the #RateCuts outlook.

So, will the Fed continue signaling progress on #Inflation or have recent events thrown a wrench into those #RateCuts plans?