Market Musings 2/4/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Private Jobs Whiff: Signal or Outlier?
With private hiring slowing, markets are questioning just how stable #LaborMarkets really are.
New ADP data showed private employment rose just 22K jobs in January—not even half of the 45K expected. Job growth is still positive, but clearly slowing. To compound the issue, December was also revised lower to 37K meaning private payrolls came in roughly -27K jobs below expectations across the two months.
Normally, this would be just one data point in a busy #LaborMarkets week. But due to another government shutdown, all the other #LaborMarkets data expected this week have been delayed leaving investors stuck with just the weak private jobs data for now. While ADP isn’t a perfect match for the official jobs report, it does often signals the direction of #LaborMarkets.
Before this release, markets were expecting the jobs report to show around 60K jobs added in January with unemployment holding steady at 4.4%. After the private jobs whiff, those expectations are likely being dialed back.
So now, it’s a waiting game…
If the ADP is right, #LaborMarkets may be cooling faster than expected. Not good for the soft landing narrative… If it’s wrong, well, investors will have to wait the weekend until the January data finally arrives for relief.
For now, markets are left questioning the stability of #LaborMarkets. We’ll find out next week whether this weakness holds when the delayed jobs report hits on Wednesday.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.