Market Musings 1/13/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
December #Inflation cooler than expected, but markets aren’t convinced…
December #Inflation accelerated from November, but mostly in-line with expectations.
Overall CPI rose +0.3% M/M mostly driven by food specifically beef and coffee. However, more importantly for markets, Core CPI came in cooler-than-expected at +0.2%.
Is #Inflation contained? Well, markets aren’t acting like it is and barely moving on the cooler #Inflation news.
On the positive side, the last three months has tracked below the Fed’s target rate. That suggests underlying #Inflation pressures remain relatively contained recently.
However, just three month prior to that, #Inflation had reaccelerated to about +0.3% M/M well-above the Fed’s target rate. The last three month’s data was also impacted by the shutdown and not as detailed as usual.
Will this move the Fed? That’s the million dollar question. We’ll see how much weight they’ll put on it. We sort of think they’ll need to see more before clarity on more potential 2026 #RateCuts. The three-in-row to end last year was already aggressive and we do think they’re back in “wait and see” mode.
Unfortunately, this #Inflation report didn’t really give us much clarity either. We’re now looking towards Wednesday’s delayed PPI data for more. But we’ll have to wait until the end of the month for the PPI to catch-up to December.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.