Market Musings 12/3/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Private #LaborMarkets shrank in November—did that just lock-in December #RateCuts?
November’s ADP report showed private #LaborMarkets payrolls falling by -31K. The third decline in four months leaving the net private jobs total since July down -16K.
What does that mean for next week’s Fed meeting?
While ADP isn’t as comprehensive as the official jobs report, this is effectively the last #LaborMarkets signal the Fed will get before it makes its #RateCuts decision. The ADP data clearly points to continued #LaborMarkets weakness which only strengthens the case for a cut.
#RateCuts odds have surged to nearly 90%, after dipping below 40% just a few weeks ago. That shift in expectations has been a major driver of the latest market rally.
Looking ahead, the only meaningful data left is Friday’s delayed September PCE #Inflation report. We don’t expect any surprise. Both core CPI and PPI for September came in softer than expected, so PCE should land in the same range.
We’re also leaning toward a December cut, but the bigger question now becomes will the Fed follow up with more #RateCuts in January? Markets aren’t pricing that in yet, but growing optimism there could spark another market rally leg higher into 2026.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.