Market Musings 1/15/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Producer #Inflation warning that #Tariffs pressure may not be over…
#Tariffs may still not be driving up consumer #Inflation, but we continue to see impact on producers.
After Tuesday’s better-than-expected CPI report, markets were looking for confirmation that #Inflation pressures were truly easing. Instead, PPI delivered a more complicated picture.
On the surface, the headline numbers looked encouraging with PPI up just 0.1% in October and 0.2% in November. That closely tracks CPI which increased only about 0.2% over the same two-month stretch. But digging into the details, the picture shifts.
Core PPI was relatively tame in November up 0.2% M/M, but that was off a sharp spike in October jumping 0.7%. That’s meaningful #Inflation acceleration and likely where #Tariffs related cost pressures continue to show up.
On an annual basis, core PPI climbed to 3.5% in November－a step up from 3.0% in September. However so far, those pressures haven’t flowed through to consumer #Inflation as CPI continues to remain muted. But we still expect more consumer price impact, the longer the #Tariffs are in effect.
Now what? Near-term, markets likely continue to trade cautiously optimistic on #Inflation. Again, #Tariffs haven’t really flowed through to consumers yet. And, there’s also hope for a Supreme Court decision to limit or remove them as well.
However, we do still see #Tariffs as a headwind for consumer #Inflation. We maintain that retailers continue to mitigate price increases while the #Tariffs situation is in flux.
On a macro level, muted CPI #Inflation still keeps the economic #Goldilocks soft landing story alive. But, PPI is a reminder that #Inflation risks especially from #Tariffs may still be working their way through the system.
Producer #Inflation will catch up with more December data at the end of the month…
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.