Market Musings 1/7/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Are markets too optimistic for Friday’s Jobs Report?
Markets were pretty optimistic on #LaborMarkets, but so far this week’s data is pushing back on that narrative.
It’s jobs week and we’re back to the regular data cadence after the shutdown delayed months of data. As usual, the #LaborMarkets data is dripping in across the week. So far, the signals have been mixed.
Job openings fell sharply in November dropping back to levels we haven’t seen since the summer. That was well-below forecasts and a much bigger pullback from September’s elevated levels than expected.
We also got the ADP private jobs report that showed a rebound from last month’s decline, but still came in slightly weaker than forecasts. Not a breakdown, but lighter than expected.
So, what’s next?
All eyes turn to Friday’s jobs report. Right now, economists are expecting a rosier picture: stronger payroll growth and a drop in the unemployment rate (which would snap a five-month streak of increases). But after the openings and ADP data, that optimism may be tested. Markets seem to have already started to trade more cautiously.
At the end of the day, this still comes back to the Fed. #LaborMarkets and #Inflation remain the key inputs for how many more #RateCuts we’ll get—and how quickly. Friday’s jobs report could go a long way in setting expectations for the year.
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