Market Musings 6/25/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Market’s over the war; what’s next on the economy?
With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, markets appear to be shifting focus back to the economy.
Markets strongly rallied Monday and Tuesday on the ceasefire. We also saw oil pricing fall from the weekend peak. However, the rally appears to be over now on Wednesday with an essentially flat market.
So what’s new for the macro?
Lost in the ceasefire euphoria, Consumer Confidence fell -5% in June. #ConsumerConfidence had recently troughed after the massive #Tariffs uncertainty in April, but strongly rebounded in May with essentially all the “reciprocal” #Tariffs on pause.
June was expected to show a little more improvement, but was a negative surprise with confidence backsliding. Mid-month, we saw a considerable 16% lift in the preliminary Consumer Sentiment data (a different consumer survey), but we’ll be watching Friday to see if that reverses and by how much.
We also heard Powell give his semi-annual House committee testimony. Not much new to glean here, but he continues to stress that the Fed can afford to hold off on #RateCuts for now. He did note the Fed could move quickly on #RateCuts if #LaborMarkets weaken, but would likely continue to hold off if they remain strong. Again, the Fed views the current unemployment rate as historically low.
Not great data and commentary for the macro so far, but the market has been preoccupied with #GlobalTension and not really paying attention.
So, what’s next?
We’ll get the weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Not likely market moving, but we’ll see if claims continue to trend higher.
More important on the #LaborMarkets front will be next week. We’ll get job openings on Tuesday, private employment on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Thursday ahead of the July 4th holiday.
In the meantime, we’ll get the final #ConsumerConfidence Consumer Sentiment data on Friday along with May PCE #Inflation data. With both the May CPI and PPI already released, we’re not really expecting anything much different from the PCE.
Regardless, we expect markets to refocus back on the economy with particular interest in a #Tariffs announcement that could be imminent.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.