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💸 Hiked expectations. Fed commentary setting table for aggressive #RisingYields likely erring on too hawkish to combat unabating #InflationFears. New forecasts projecting 75bps hike (0.75%). Markets freefall on Friday over potentially very hawkish incoming rate environment. 😬 Recession concerns. Surprisingly light earnings week as investors continue to turn attention towards #RecessionWatch. 10-year treasury yields continue to climb up +3% to new Read More
💸 Inflation keeps climbing. 12-month CPI grew 8.5% in March－new 40-year high, but largely driven by surging gas prices. Some signs of #InflationFears peaking/stabilizing. However, data likely locking in near-term aggressive #RisingYields plan. ✈️ Travel returns. Strong earnings report by portfolio company airline Delta boasting last 5 weeks were the “highest bookings in our history”. Bodes well for #RevengeTravel kicking off this summer. Read More
📈 Yields spike. Fed March meeting minutes released signaled very hawkish discussions around raising yields in 0.5% increments and starting balance sheet reduction as soon as May. Fed looks to be VERY aggressive with #RisingYields to combat #InflationFears. 10-year treasury yield spiked +14% to new YTD highs. ✈️ Flight to safety. High-growth technology names led markets lower on #RisingYields and more reports Read More
📉 Yields invert. 10-year treasury yield fell -5% from last week’s YTD peak. Yields briefly inverted sending markets sharply lower Thursday. A flattening yield curve signals economic weakness and particularly an inverted yield curve is a potential leading indicator for incoming recession. 🇺🇦 Shifting tides? Ukraine retaking some areas around capital Kiev as Russia claims to be Read More
🛡 Biden visits NATO. President Biden traveled to NATO HQ in Belgium for discussions on ongoing #UkraineCrisis. Cautious market optimism with more cooperation, additional sanctions and forceful condemnation of Putin. S&P 500 maintains rally up another +2% last week. 💸 Rising yields chatter. Barely a week out from March meeting and investors already speculating on the next #RisingYields hike. Powell Read More
🛢 Weaponizing oil. US adds new #UkraineCrisis sanction banning Russian oil sending crude oil prices surging. However, OPEC member UAE signaled willingness to increase supply (potentially offsetting Russia ban impact). Crude oil prices fell -12% from highs on Wed while markets cheered surging -3%. 💸 Accelerating inflation. Feb 12-month CPI grew 7.9% as #InflationFears showing no signs of moderating near-term. Feb Read More
☢️ Nuclear threat. More escalation in #UkraineCrisis as Putin’s forces attack infrastructure including a nuclear power plant fire that fortunately was put out without dangerous radiation leakage. Markets continue volatility with S&P 500 down again -1% for the week. 🛬 Travel grounded. #UkraineCrisis escalation has take the wind out of #RevengeTravel sails especially as escalating conflict appears longer-lasting. Travel names pummeled as Read More
⚔️ Ukraine invasion. After weeks of #UkraineCrisis escalation, Russia invaded Ukraine on Wednesday night (US time). US and other NATO nations retaliated by imposing severe sanctions on Russia with little deterrence impact so far. Initially plummeting -3% premarket, S&P 500 rallied ending up +1.5% on Thursday. 🗣 Russia ready to talk? Russia agreed to send a delegation to not-so-neutral Read More
⚔️ Ukraine escalating. Putin escalating #UkraineCrisis declaring two pro-Russia eastern territories independent and moving troops in for “peacekeeping”. Volatile market all week initially rising on Putin’s diplomatic head fake early before tumbling on steady escalation. S&P 500 rose +1% thru Wed before ending down -1.5% for the week. 💸 No Fed surprises. Fed’s Jan meeting minutes released with no Read More
🎉 Recovery party… With Omicron receding, bullish market sentiment as investors were ready to get the #COVIDRecovery party started. Strong earnings results from #RevengeTravel names bolstered the euphoria. Markets rose +2% through Wed extending past 2 weeks’ green streak. 🚀 CPI still soaring. January CPI 12-month growth hit 7.5% above expectations and Dec’s 7% readout. With #InflationFears still hot, investors worry new data Read More