Market Musings 3/31/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
#GlobalTension, Oil and #Inflationā¦ why markets fell in March
The S&P 500 tumbled over -5% in March as the US-Iran war sent oil prices surging and spooked investors. However, March ended on a more positive note with reports that the White House is looking to wind down the #GlobalTension.
March was all about #GlobalTension and the USāIran war. At the start of the month, the US struck Iran alongside Israel sending crude oil sharply higherļ¼up over 50% in the month. Meanwhile, gas prices followed rising roughly 35%. That quickly fed into broad #Inflation concerns.
The monthly economic data didnāt help eitherā¦
On the #LaborMarkets front, the February jobs report whiffed. We saw a decline in payrolls and a rise in unemployment ā raising fresh concerns with the job market.
On #Inflation, the picture remains mixed. Consumer prices stayed moderate, but producer costs continued to diverge higher. However, higher oil prices could push costs even higherā¦
So, what now?
Markets did get some relief to close the month. Reports suggest the White House is aiming to wind down the #GlobalTension within the next 4 to 6 weeks. However, thatās the same timeline as when the war startedā¦ and weāre already over 4 weeks in.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to push back with any negotiations still a question mark. Disruptions to oil supply may not resolve quickly if this drags on. While markets are cheering, weāre not out of the woods yet.
Looking ahead to April, #GlobalTension headlines will likely continue to drive volatility. Markets had started to lose confidence in a quick resolution and now theyāll be watching closely to see if anything is actually changing.
Weāll also start getting more economic data that reflects the impact of higher oil prices. First up is the jobs report on Friday. That could give the first real signal of how the #LaborMarkets are holding up. However, more important will be the #Inflation reports mid-month.
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