Market Musings 11/25/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
#RateCuts hype’s back, but #ConsumerConfidence red flags ahead of Black Friday…
Markets strongly rallying this week rebounding up +2.5%. While slower due to Thanksgiving, Tuesday got some delayed updates on PPI #Inflation and Retail Sales as well as November #ConsumerConfidence.
First, September Overall PPI #Inflation was in-line and moderately higher, but Core PPI barely ticked up－below expectations. Not too surprising after the more moderate CPI data we got last month. However, this likely continues to bolster the case for more #RateCuts in December which markets are rallying on.
We also got the delayed retail sales which grew but lower than expected. Not significantly worse, but something to watch going into Black Friday.
Finally, we got November #ConsumerConfidence which fell -7% since October－more than expected. In addition, the Expectations Index tumbled -12% to 63 points. This is key for #ConsumerConfidence as it’s well below 80 which is considered where #Recession worries start.
So, what now? Well, Thanksgiving, but more importantly the day after — Black Friday.
Investors will be keying in on sales strength as a signal for how the holiday season is shaping up and how resilient #ConsumerConfidence spending remains. However, we’d take the results with a grain of salt as we’d expect thrifty shopping to pick up anyways if there’s #Recession concerns. We’ll likely get some early data potentially by Friday, with a more full view by early next week.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.