Market Musings 10/22/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Friday CPI #Inflation Preview: What Markets Are Watching
After weeks of an economic data drought, investors will finally get an pulse check with new CPI #Inflation data on Friday.
Since the beginning of the month, the government shutdown has also shut down official economic data releases. The only reason we’re getting this inflation report is because CPI is used to set the Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. The CPI data was actually delayed from its usual mid-month release, but will finally be here on Friday.
You can bet investors will be paying close attention…
Overall CPI is forecasted to rise 0.4% M/M while Core #Inflation (excluding food and energy) is expected to be up 0.3% M/M. Both are roughly in-line with what we saw last month.
Basically, markets are expecting the same story: #Inflation continues to climb above target, but not surging out of control.
For months, we’ve seen modestly accelerating overall #Inflation numbers, but with pockets of pressure in goods affected by #Tariffs.
Retailers appear to be absorbing some of those costs, since producer #Inflation (what companies pay) has been climbing faster.
Again, investors will be focused on the #Inflation mix. They’ll be ok with Good prices continuing to rise, but will want Service #Inflation to stay low.
If that split holds, markets will probably shrug off even a slightly hotter overall #Inflation print. But if service prices also start climbing, market confidence could wobble.
We’ll take a close look as well when #Inflation numbers release on Friday.
No Ursa account yet? Download Ursa here!
The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.