Market Musings 9/10/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
PPI In-Line, CPI Next ➡️ Soft Landing or Stagflation?
#Inflation watch is on — the PPI is in and the CPI is next. Will investors head into next week’s Fed meeting with soft landing optimism or #Stagflation fears?
Producer #Inflation came in mostly as expected for August. Core PPI rose 0.3% M/M right in line with forecasts. Headlines called out the -0.1% dip in the overall number, but that was driven by volatile energy and trade services.
Markets likely focused more on the core result though showing pricing pressure still running hot, but not accelerating. Stocks ended Wednesday slightly higher on that more moderate #Inflation read.
The bigger test comes Thursday with the CPI. Both overall and core CPI numbers are expected to rise 0.3% for August. As with the PPI, investors will likely pay more attention to the core CPI.
Here’s how we expect markets may react.
A softer 0.2% increase or lower? That likely bolsters the soft landing case and could spark a rally into the Fed meeting.
An in-line 0.3% or maybe even slightly hotter at 0.4%? It might raise concerns, but we still think markets will likely tolerate it as #Tariffs filter into consumer #Inflation.
However, a 0.5% spike or higher? That’s where #Stagflation fears will kick in and optimism could quickly fade.
Again, tomorrow’s CPI is the final puzzle piece before the Fed meeting next week. Rate cuts look locked in, but will the tone be optimism or fear? It’ll depend on the CPI print.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.