Market Musings 6/10/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Markets drift higher amid China #Tariffs talks and May #Inflation data
The S&P continued to climb higher Monday and Tuesday despite radio silence from the US-China #Tariffs talks in London.
We’re about a month into the 90-day pause which temporarily removes massive #Tariffs on both sides and essentially a trade embargo to allow for negotiations to take place. These talks are extremely high stakes as both economies can’t decouple that quickly without significant economic repercussions.
If you’ve been following the timeline, a couple weeks ago, the White House began lashing out at China for slow walking rare earth metal exports while China reiterated frustration with incremental aggressive policies targeting them. Though after the call between US and China leaders last Thursday, both sides quickly agreed re-engage in talks that started Monday. However, it’s been unusually quiet the last couple of days with barely any mention on progress so far which is usual for the White House.
We’re honestly not sure yet what to make of it. We’d assume good progress would have be teased already, but we’d also assume the White House would start lashing out if talks stalled again. Despite the uncertainty, markets have continued to rally anyways.
We also have May #Inflation data coming up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producers Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
After some acceleration to start the year, #Inflation appears to have slowed in the past two months. However, markets are expecting a little step-up in May. While we didn’t really see much #Tariffs impact in April, some impact appears to be baked into May expectations.
Core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% M/M－a slight acceleration from April. This would also slightly increase the Y/Y #Inflation metric to 2.9%.
On the producer’s side, PPI is also expected to rise 0.3% M/M－accelerating off April’s -0.1% decline. One thing we’ll be paying close attention to is for revisions. Last month, we saw the past PPI data revised higher which offset a lot of the perceived April progress.
Again, we’ll get #Inflation data starting with the CPI on Wednesday followed by the PPI on Thursday.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.