Market Musings 3/4/2026
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Stocks cooled in February; here’s what could move markets in March…
The S&P 500 pulled back in February as investors backed off from some of the highest-flying risk assets including taking profits on #AI.
On the macro front, uncertainty continued to build. While it was no surprised the Fed confirmed a pause in #RateCuts, it’s a bit cloudy for when they’ll resume them. #Inflation remains mixed with consumer more moderate, but the producer side is ticking higher. Meanwhile, #LaborMarkets still look pretty solid to start the year. #Tariffs also returned to the spotlight. The Supreme Court struck down last year’s levies—only for the White House to quickly reimpose them using another emergency authority.
So, on to March… it’s only been a few days in, but it’s already been busy (though overall markets are only slightly lower to start the month). We see investors focusing on three major catalysts ahead.
First, the U.S. assault on Iran. So far, markets have largely shrugged it off, but this conflict could carry more economic impact than prior #GlobalTension operations like Venezuela. Probably the more direct impact, oil prices are already up about 13% since the start of the month. The administration also says the conflict may only last a few weeks, but if it drags on, there could be significant impact to global logistics, supply chains and #Inflation.
Second, the macro. Another Fed meeting mid-month. No #RateCuts are expected again, but we’ll get an updated dot plot rate forecast. 2026 #RateCuts expectations have been pulling back as the #Inflation outlook gets cloudier — especially now with rising oil prices. Again, #LaborMarkets looking more stable and that stability means the Fed may see less need to support it vs. #Inflation.
Finally, #AI. Near-term spending still looks strong, but investors getting more and more wary of the longer-term economics. Cash flows are starting to take a hit and the monetization still isn’t there. Spending is massive this year — but can hyperscalers really sustain that pace year after year?
Lots of catalysts before we head into another earnings season next month. Next up is the jobs report on Friday…
No Ursa account yet? Download Ursa here!
The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by fauxels.