Market Musings 12/2/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Stocks struggled through November before a Thanksgiving comeback. Will it continue?
November rebounded to end just slightly higher up +0.1% thanks to a late-month rally that reversed some early #RateCuts and #AI concerns.
For most of the month, investors fretted over the economy, #RateCuts and a potential #AI bubble weighing heavily on markets. The long government shutdown froze usual economic data leaving investors flying blind on #Inflation, #LaborMarkets and other key indicators. Meanwhile, #ConsumerConfidence and #Inflation expectations deteriorated quickly raising questions about whether the Fed would delay #RateCuts 3 without clearer data. By mid-month, December #RateCuts expectations had fallen below 40%.
Compounding that, #AI driven enthusiasm that fueled much of the market’s rally this year started to face skepticism. While demand remains strong, investors questioned whether profit growth can justify and sustain the massive infrastructure spending. This caution led to the market tumbling through mid-November.
However, as Thanksgiving approached, markets regained footing as mixed economic data suggested #Inflation remains moderate, #RateCuts expectations surged back, and #AI fears eased… somewhat.
So, what’s next? Well, we’re heading into the final month of the year with markets already up over 16% YTD.
This week, we’ll get more delayed economic data, but no jobs report. However, the ADP payroll report will likely stand in as the last #LaborMarkets data before the Fed’s meeting and #RateCuts decision next week.
Will we get a Santa rally? #RateCuts and #ConsumerConfidence holiday spending will likely be key catalysts for how the markets finish the year…
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by fauxels.