Market Musings 11/20/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Market Euphoria Reverses on Jobs Report
Nvidia lit the fuse, but the #LaborMarkets jobs report seemed to have killed the rally…
Markets swung hard on Thursday opening up 1.4% before collapsing to finish down -1.6%－a massive 3% intraday reversal. What happened?
First, momentum started with Nvidia. After last night’s blowout earnings, markets came in red-hot and ready to run. Then, came the long-delayed September jobs report and that’s where sentiment flipped.
The US added 119K jobs more than double expectations for 50K, but unemployment unexpectedly ticked up to 4.4% vs. expectations for 4.3%. Stronger than expected… but still mixed and adds to the uncertainty around the Fed’s December #RateCuts decision.
In addition, officials confirmed there will be no October jobs report due to the shutdown and the November report will be delayed until December 16th — after the Fed meeting.
What does that mean? The Fed will go into its final meeting without any more new #LaborMarkets data. Will they see today’s report as too strong and decide to wait? Markets seem to think so… #RateCuts odds slipped back under 40%.
That uncertainty likely also impacted the #AI trade… Yes, Nvidia showed that hyperscalers are still pouring money into data centers. But it didn’t answer the big question: is the #AI spending sustainable? Some hyperscalers are already turning to debt to keep investing and the cost of that capital only rises if rates stay higher for longer.
Nvidia’s blowout couldn’t save the rally as investors continue the broad reevaluation of #RateCuts, valuations and financial conditions. We’ll see if this sour sentiment carries into Thanksgiving.
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As of the publish date, Ursa portfolios may own NVDA. The stocks mentioned in this article may cease to be owned by Ursa portfolios at any point.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.