Market Musings 11/10/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Economic data deluge ahead; prepare for post-shutdown catch-up…
Markets surged with the longest ever government shutdown likely coming to an end. We’re looking forward to the economic data dam that’s about to break…
Stocks rallied up +1.5% on Monday after a Senate deal eased fears of deeper economic fallout.
On Sunday, a group of Democratic senators crossed party lines and signaled support for reopening the government. It’s not official yet, but optimism is building that it could be finalized within days.
Markets had largely brushed off the shutdown since it began in October. But in recent weeks, concerns had been growing that it might start bleeding into the broader economy, It was especially visible with air travel disruptions hitting just as the busy holiday travel season ramps up.
So, what now?
We’re likely in for a deluge of data. With Washington possibly reopening by week’s end, we’re gearing up for a wave of long-delayed reports that could finally show how the economy’s really been holding up.
We’ll have two months’ worth of updates for most reports that span from #Inflation to #LaborMarkets and from #ConsumerConfidence retail sales to GDP. We don’t expect it all to drop right away, but the first piece could be the September jobs report. (It was likely ready to go right before everything shut down.)
However, there is likely time to catch up before the final Fed meeting. Optimistic markets have odds sliding in favor of #RateCuts from about 50/50 at the last meeting. The economic data releases could swing those odds in either direction.
The next few weeks could finally give us a clear read on where the economy stands and what that means for #RateCuts.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.