Market Musings 10/1/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Shutdown + Weak Jobs = More #RateCuts?
The US government is shut down, but market are rallying anyways — here’s why…
Markets were initially lower after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a budget deal Tuesday. However, stocks quickly turned green again on reemerging #RateCuts optimism.
The key driver? #LaborMarkets data.
Job openings in August held steady — basically flat M/M, but private jobs absolutely tanked…
ADP reported a loss of -32K jobs in September. It was a big miss with expectations for a gain of 45K.
And the kicker? Last month’s estimate was slashed from a gain of 54K down to a loss of -3K. Another huge #LaborMarkets downward revision — just like we’ve been seeing with the recent jobs report data.
Plus with the government shutdown, Friday’s jobs report is likely delayed. So, this ADP number might be the headline #LaborMarkets story of the week.
And, that’s what got #RateCuts bets popping again. After drifting closer to 4 cuts through next year since the Fed meeting, markets are now back to pricing in 4 to 5.
Weaker #LaborMarkets and a government shutdown, but stocks still climbing? Because investors see it all pointing to more #RateCuts ahead.
What’s next? Shutdown developments are evolving daily, but once it’s over we’ll still get September’s jobs report for a better read on #LaborMarkets. However, we do see private jobs as a fairly decent proxy for the jobs report anyways. In the meantime, we’ll see if #RateCuts optimism continues to trend higher.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.