Market Musings 9/28/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
It’s Jobs Week! How will markets react?
It’s Jobs Week! Four #LaborMarkets updates coming in the next five days—how will markets react? Let’s break it down.
First, Tuesday brings the new job openings report. Openings have fallen the past two months since a May peak. The August data is expected to dip slightly again but may be stabilizing at recent lows. Unless there’s a big surprise, markets may shrug this one off since it’s more backward-looking.
Next, Wednesday, we get ADP private employment. Private jobs have been soft, but holding up better than feared. Expectations are for continued moderation, but still with gains.
Then, Thursday is weekly jobless claims. Recently, claims have surprised markets falling sharply the past couple of weeks, but investors are bracing for that trend to reverse.
Finally, the main event: Friday’s jobs report. Nonfarm payroll growth has been muted for months with big downward revisions. Markets expect another weak month, but see signs of stabilizing－a slight improvement from last month.
Meanwhile, unemployment will monitored after ticking up the last two months. Investors are forecasting it to steady this time. Again, expecting stability.
Bottom line: it’s a massive week for #LaborMarkets data. Investors need jobs soft enough to keep the Fed pushing #RateCuts, but not so weak that the economy risks tipping into #Recession.
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