Market Musings 9/25/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Market’s #RateCuts rally fades — what reignites it?
Markets are sliding as #RateCuts optimism fades. Remember that post-Fed rally? It’s almost gone…. what happened?
It started with Powell earlier this week reminding investors that while #LaborMarkets ARE weakening, #Inflation is still a problem. Then, came some stronger economic data on Thursday.
Q2 GDP got revised sharply higher. It’s now up to 3.8% for the second revision. That’s up from 3.3% in the first revision and from 3.0% in the initial estimate.
And, the surging jobless claims two weeks ago? They’ve cooled fast dropping to just 218K last week. That takes away the “soft #LaborMarkets” story and adds weight to more of a “stabilizing economy” narrative.
It’s good for growth, but bad for faster #RateCuts. This bolsters the Fed’s slower #RateCuts forecast and allows them to wait on more #Inflation data with #Tariffs still lurking in the background.
What’s next? The week’s not over and Friday brings another look at #Inflation with the PCE as well as #ConsumerConfidence sentiment, but neither may not be enough to shake markets out of this funk.
The real spotlight is on next week’s monthly jobs report. That’s where we’ll see if #LaborMarkets are truly softening or holding stronger than investors hoped…
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.