Market Musings 9/17/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
The Fed resumed #RateCuts, but investors are still wondering what’s ahead…
The Fed delivered on #RateCuts with the expected 25bps cut, but the dot plot tells a more complicated story.
For the rest of this year, the Fed signaled one to two more #RateCuts. But even inside the Fed, opinions differ with some members thinking September’s cut may already be enough.
Looking into 2026, the forecast didn’t really excite investors either. The median projection shows three more #RateCuts. While a single vote could potentially pushing it to four, it’s still below the five #RateCuts markets are expecting.
Longer-term, the Fed sees rates settling near 3% — lower than today, but higher than many hoped.
The takeaway? The Fed is clearly unsure about the economy. Recent weakening #LaborMarkets data likely triggered this “risk management cut”, but Powell still highlighted historically low unemployment and #Inflation risks.
The S&P 500 ended red with the growth-heavy NASDAQ down further. However, optimism remains with stocks still bouncing back from earlier lows.
Looking ahead, the next Fed meeting in October will be shaped by just one more #LaborMarkets jobs report and another month of #Inflation data. Markets are still pricing in two more #RateCuts this year and 2 to 3 more in 2026. We’ll see if that shifts over the next few days…
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.