Market Musings 9/15/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
September #RateCuts expected, but markets want 5 more…
September #RateCuts looks locked-in, but investors want five more－will the Fed deliver? That’s the big question heading into Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
Markets are already pricing in a 25bps cut. That comes after two straight months of weakening jobs data and a string of downward revisions showing first half #LaborMarkets weren’t as resilient as thought.
On the #Inflation side, core prices are still running above target, but not drastically accelerating, even with #Tariffs now in effect. However, we do think it’s just a matter of time before that pressure builds.
Stocks have pushed to all-time highs ahead of the meeting with markets are expecting 6 #RateCuts through next year. Back in June, the Fed was penciling in just 4. Whether the rally continues likely depends on how aggressive the Fed dot plot forecast is at this meeting.
Here’s how we see it:
If the Fed boosts forecasts to six #RateCuts through next year in-line with market expectations, we could see fresh highs.
However, more likely, we expect the Fed to just increase to five cuts. That’s a little less than markets want, but probably not enough to dent confidence too much.
Though, if the forecast stays at four? That could spark a more significant pullback as markets recalibrate.
Either way, initial September #RateCuts looks locked in. The real question is how far and how fast the Fed is willing to go from here.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.