Market Musings 9/4/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
#LaborMarkets weaken, but green light for #RateCuts…
The #LaborMarkets data was weak, but not too weak. Is this the Goldilocks recipe for #RateCuts?
Here’s the quick September jobs week rundown so far:
Job openings slid to 7.2M in July. That’s down from 7.4M in June and below flat expectations.
Weekly jobless claims climbed to 237K. That’s a step up from last week and topped more flattish forecasts.
ADP private employment added 54K jobs in August. That’s roughly half of the adds in July and a bigger haircut than expected.
#LaborMarkets are slowing. Everything so far has come in below the prior period and worse than expected.
However, they’re still not crashing. That’s likely why markets have strongly rallied the past 2 days.
What now? All eyes will be on Friday’s jobs report. After last month’s massive revisions, investors will be hoping for that “just right” #LaborMarkets scenario. A report weak enough to justify #RateCuts, but strong enough to show the economy isn’t falling into a #Recession.
Investors will be closely paying attention to nonfarm payrolls (expected to be roughly flat M/M), the unemployment rate (expected to tick up to 4.3%) and no more surprise revisions. However, investors might welcome a reversal regaining some of the lost jobs from last month…
With the data so far, markets are feeling pretty good for that Goldilocks report. It would put a green check on #LaborMarkets with just #Inflation left next week ahead of the Fed meeting’s #RateCuts decision.
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Original Photo by Pixabay.