Market Musings 7/12/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Core #Inflation up, but #RateCuts still expected…
#Inflation is heating up again, but still unlikely to derail September #RateCuts.
Core #Inflation, that’s prices excluding food and energy, ticked up to 3.1% Y/Y in July. That’s up 2.9% the month before, but right in line with expectations.
So, what’s different from last month?
Core CPI was up 0.3% M/M. The biggest mover was airfares up 4%, but after three months of falling. We also saw price bumps in auto sales and repairs, hospital services, and even dairy.
#Inflation is resuming, but not exactly really accelerating yet from the #Tariffs.
Given that, markets are still all-in on #RateCuts with a 94% chance now for September. However, the Fed doesn’t meet until mid-September and we’ll get one more CPI report before then.
More immediately, we’ve got producer #Inflation data (PPI) coming Thursday. That’s the one that measures costs for sellers.
Markets are expecting a 0.3% M/M increase similar to what we just saw in consumer prices.
The 10% baseline #Tariffs have been in place since April, but the higher additional #Tariffs didn’t start until August. However, the steel and aluminum #Tariffs have been around longer.
Thursday’s PPI report might give us the first hints of how that’s hitting domestic production costs.
Stay tuned!
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.